The synth went 50-over in less than 10 mins after limit on futures. I think ppl trade "paper" in futures as it holds up to scrutiny. Who's going to deny that someone traded ES if it was marketable? I don't believe it that someone bought Hogs when the options were 50-100 over futures. Maybe he's blessed. If it was a paper-trade then I think he should let us know. It matters in products like Hogs.
I don't imply anything by this post, but if someone questioned me regarding something related to a past trade or call, I would simply post a screenshot of the entry or exit and end all confusion, it's fast and efficient.
I'm certain he had the trade on and I'm even more certain that a whole gaggle of ET followers took the trade as well and I would bet dollars to doughnuts they are still short. This is why I think Dave should have been more clear that he is out. I'm sure many stayed short thinking he probably was still short. Not that Dave owes them anything but if one is going to scream out a high conviction trade, just be aware that many are going to jump in and follow.
Exactly my point (ppl piling in short Hogs). He comes back two weeks later stating he was out that day, post-limit with synthetics $0.50 to $1.00 over? Sorry, that's BS. I will happily apologize if proven wrong but this stinks.
Yea, I almost took the trade myself when I saw his first post. But I thought nah someone could take this for a ride pretty easily. but who or what is moving this thing. .
Serious? Pull up a chart of coffee. Commodities move like this when there is a supply constraint. These moves happen all the time....it's best not to fade them. These moves are best exploited further out on the curve, not jumping in front of a delivery contract.
This one hasnt't moved like this in a long time. Look at the monthly per bar. But I hear ya on how these things can move. And that's why I didn't jump in.
OK, so let's try to use some deductive reasoning skills here. Product X has been quiet and stable for a long period of time behaving nice and orderly. Suddenly product X goes vertical. What do you "think" you should do? Short it? Now on the flip side, say product X has been extremely volatile for months upon months and the volatility has been driven by the same news item over and over and over again. Is that a better short? Absolutely! Crude oil is a case in point there.