RM's occasional market calls...

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rearden Metal, Nov 8, 2010.

  1. In a bull market that feeling should be common :)
     
    #741     Sep 16, 2013
  2. Here's a completely useless prediction for you: Early reports of multiple shooters will turn out to be false. We've seen this pattern before; Initially multiple shooters are suspected, and then it turns out there was just one lone nutjob the entire time.
     
    #742     Sep 16, 2013
  3. Datradr

    Datradr

    that is a good call....probably right too...

    now hot to play it? buy S&P? maybe it will rally after the reduced threat of a conspiracy of multiple shooters?
    are there options for that? LOL
     
    #743     Sep 16, 2013
  4. Daal

    Daal

    RM,
    what are your thoughts on the 30y UST?
     
    #744     Sep 16, 2013
  5. Apart from the initial jolt, today's violence is practically irrelevant to the market, IMO. Therefore I don't expect any market effects at all when the authorities finally announce there were never multiple shooters.

    I just like making predictions and watching them come true. As for bonds, I'm not feeling anything there.
     
    #745     Sep 16, 2013
  6. Datradr

    Datradr

    ya i was being sarcastic about actually putting on a trade for that news..

    random idiots are completely irrelevant to the markets.

    wonder what will happen to gold and the market if the fed does taper bond buying? Is it already priced into Gold? will the S&P finally have a 10% pullback?
     
    #746     Sep 16, 2013
  7. Arjun1

    Arjun1

    RM - you're a genius, but I see one huge flaw in your approach to markets.
    I recognize it in you because I've seen it in myself.
    And it is this: you have a bearish bias.
    I did too mainly because my career was born in a bear market (post 2000). And because I've witness two ridiculously overvalued bull markets followed by two massive bear markets.
    I'm now a long only player as I see no point missing 100% plus moves out fear/greed related to the 10-20% reactions which are just noise in the long run.
    A taper-tantrum may produce a 10% correction however I see a supermassive profits driven bull market ahead.
    Corporate America (which trades on the exchanges) is completely different than Political America (residing in washington) and often people allow pessimism about the later to influence their opinion about the former.
    Corporate America is the most efficient profit making machine in all of human history.
     
    #747     Sep 16, 2013
  8. toolazy

    toolazy

    you not glorifying yourself by any chance :D :D
     
    #748     Sep 16, 2013
  9. you must be expecting American history to repeat like it did in the past when Americans kept their boot on every one else's neck....this is a new world

    America has likely seen it's better days and it would really be stupid to just expect the stock market to continue upwards in perpetuity because of the "past"..
     
    #749     Sep 16, 2013
  10. Datradr

    Datradr

    Hey Rearden,

    Anything stiring in your mind at these levels? S&P short?

    thoughts on gold?
     
    #750     Nov 7, 2013