RM's occasional market calls...

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rearden Metal, Nov 8, 2010.

  1. Joined the ADT short party with 8 x 40 Jan 14 puts.

    Go shorties :)
     
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    #681     Jul 11, 2013
  2. Very cool- I have some of those too.

    I should mention one thing though: If you're going out to Jan '14, the 45 puts at $5.65 and the 42 puts at $4.00 now look a bit better to me than those 40's at $3.10. Yours do better on drastic down moves, while mine (the higher strike/less decay) do better on more subdued moves. I suppose it's partly a matter of taste in the end.

    But my biggest ADT positions are the ITM <b>Aug.</b> puts and also short <b>Aug.</b> ITM calls, with that July 31st earnings report as my anticipated catalyst.
     
    #682     Jul 11, 2013
  3. I hear you, you betting on this July earnings report for the big breakdown.
     
    #683     Jul 11, 2013
  4. You're in the synthetic stock, so there is no benefit to decay. Just sayin.
     
    #684     Jul 11, 2013
  5. Reinforced the position by adding some more 40 Jan 14 Puts to the short build.

    My reasons for shorting ADT are purely technical, my fundamental reason would be RM.

    Expecting a drop below 38 as a minimum.

    Best wishes to everyone, especially to the kind OP who time and time again shares his good calls.

    Will revisit after the earnings report.
     
    #685     Jul 12, 2013
  6. Technicals you say ?

    I got an upslanted bullish inverse head and shoulders in the making, you and the OP are going to need a lot of luck in that earnings report, because technically, this is a bullish train.

    [​IMG]
     
    #686     Jul 12, 2013
  7. The beauty of technical analysis, simultaneous bears and bulls at any given time, otherwise price would travel vertically.

    Technically, until there is a close above the may highs, it remains a downtrend, so I am basically fading a retracement inside a downtrend.

    Looks good to me for new lows to come, in time of course.
     
    #687     Jul 12, 2013
  8. The rumor of of T buying something turned out to be true, although it was LEAP instead.

    The option action in LEAP on the last minutes on Friday was interesting to say the least.
     
    #688     Jul 14, 2013
  9. Criminal is more like it.

    Someone better go to jail for that.

    BTW- the guy who swept the book at 3:42pm turned a $6000 "bet" into roughly $600,000 (with LEAP @ 17).
     
    #689     Jul 14, 2013
  10. Fool

    Fool

    &#20853;&#19981;&#21388;&#35784;

    All's fair in love and war.
     
    #690     Jul 14, 2013