Increased the size in those calls in case it matters to anyone. These things move around so much, the total size is still very close to 5% of my UVXY cost. (4.4% at the moment) <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3807497>
Would this make sense at this part of the cycle? Will 1685.75 be taken out? I would think so later, but what needs to happen first? Is upside sustainable before this happens? How long does the market typically take to do its business? I would be very surprised if we didn't correct / range for at least a week before another attempt at the highs. This market was extremely weak going into yesterday, and with the amount of profit taking which has occurred against the last of the new buyers, where will the buying come from to take it higher? I don't see (from a high probability POV) how we can go higher without having a more substantial correction in depth and time first, then new highs. So does this mean that you need UVXY to go up 5% or more just to break even? If your UVXY makes money, your calls will go out worthless. If you're out of upside protection by Friday, do you plan on buying more or is UVXY long a short term trade only? The calls on this thread have been great so far, but hedging with calls here is something I really don't understand. I'm not an options guy, and maybe its sensible here to cover all your bases, but it seems a lot to pay to protect against an event which is very very unlikely here. Is there a way you can calculate the true odds of the market going to new highs by the end of the week? Then you would know whether you are getting value in terms of what you are paying for protection. Or better yet, watch the market in the RTH for the next few days and lighten up / hedge if you see an indication of a bottom (which we have not had yet). Would be interested in hearing your strategy on this one, if you don't mind sharing...
UVXY is a horrible instrument. Just buying index puts makes much more sense. Plus some calls too, if you want to hedge.
i was wondering same as blotto. NIKK down 7+%. AUD heading to 90. and me having another glass of antioxidants. ????
I've already exited a little bit of each leg. I could liquidate both legs right now at current prices and take a very nice win, but I think I can do even better. Does the trade make sense yet?
so, with this ability to make calls for a decade, one can assume you are in 9 digits acc balance by now. But you are saying is that you are not. How come ? I know money is not everything, say health is more important, but still.... what is the hurdle ?
If you do not know any of the possible answers to those questions, you are either not a trader, have not been trading long enough, or are unusually different to the rest of the human race in several significant ways. So are you an alien, a novice, or a spectator? I ask myself why I'm not yet putting up mid-high seven figure years, and there are plenty of answers--I shan't bore you with them, but I imagine most with more than 5 years in the business could relate. The most obvious is the difference between simple and compound interest, where one removes his living expenses from the trading account. The other reasons are method or personality based. Anyway, isn't your question like asking a Texan how many head of cattle he owns? RMs reasons won't be my reasons or your reasons...we might share some similarities to the extent that we are all part of the human condition...but perhaps best to focus on your own goals and plans for achieving them.
I'll address everything else later, but just FYI I've dumped all those calls into the rally off the lows we just got in spooz.