RM's occasional market calls...

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rearden Metal, Nov 8, 2010.

  1. IMO, spooz are currently overbought, but not overvalued. There's a big difference between the two.

    I'm not willing to position either way at this point, however.
     
    #481     May 8, 2013
  2. I piled most of my capital into 2 longs that haven't moved as much as I thought. It sucks because I didn't have room for some tech and oil stocks that I really liked and have moved well.

    I'm not sure if I should sell, I have no short positions on but I'm getting uneasy and have a feeling tomorrow is going to be volatile and I think downwards. I don't know if something is going down in the world tomorrow, but I'm feeling uncomfortable maybe its because my 2 longs are not moving at all lol :confused:. Going to take some small gains for put option purchase..
     
    #482     May 8, 2013
  3. The trend follower comment was from Rearden: "Are the trend following hedge funds still long a boatload of gold? This is important to figure out."

    Gold topped in September 2011 at $1920. It's unlikely that any fund with a trend-following strategy is still long after a 1 1/2 year bear market which saw prices fall 30%. The only big holders still likely to be long are those who are happy to hold against a major trend.

    For big funds, 2-3% moves (what you are aiming for) are their slippage. None of them are going to be squeezed by a 2% move to 1500. They have either been squeezed already during the $165 per ounce rally, or would be squeezed by a break significantly above resistance e.g. 1575-1600.

    The only people who will be squeezed by a move to 1500 are those who are playing the recent $40 (<3%) mini-range with close stops just above the highs - not something that large trend-following funds tend to do.
     
    #483     May 8, 2013
  4. It would have worked out okay this time (after a couple days of heat), but me and currencies still don't get along.
     
    #484     May 9, 2013
  5. Samsara

    Samsara

    Gold's finally behaving nicely, but ADT's been indifferent to the short. I covered and re-entered higher, but still am taking on a bit of heat.

    Regardless, I'm on the same page with your LT fundamentals read, and this buying spree after missed estimates seems half-hearted. Definitely liking adding on near $45, and particularly today. But... caveat being my stops would be a lot tighter and I'd stay on the sidelines and wait for a while, this time, if they get hit. Just my own humble read, but anyone else still liking this short?
     
    #485     May 10, 2013
  6. Here's how I intend to play ADT going forward: Since the market can 'stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent', I'll keep light size on generally, adding significant size before each earnings report. It appears ADT management is the kind that denies they have a problem for as long as they possibly can- This makes negative pre-announcements less likely IMO.

    P.S. You know what would be interesting? If JGB's were to crash on Monday...
     
    #486     May 10, 2013
  7. Samsara

    Samsara

    Very interesting idea. Sizing up into earnings is an approach I've always avoided without a LT prior position, but taking a position based on how likely a company would hide their weak hand in denial: I like that. Especially given that's exactly what happened, whereas ADT's price otherwise seems a lot more random.

    Actually started to think about jgbs after reading Krugman's op-ed this morning. More of a curiosity though, since I've never had any luck with anything tied to political risk, unless it's a currency pair that's momentarily correlated with an index.
     
    #487     May 10, 2013
  8. Link, if you please? (UTFSE didn't work)
     
    #488     May 10, 2013
  9. Josef K

    Josef K

    #489     May 10, 2013
  10. Samsara

    Samsara

    That's the one :)

    The note about the crazy Bernanke-haters made me think of ET, every time the sp00z make a new high.

    To RM's idea of aggregating the stock_trad3rs of the world as a contrarian indicator, a simple script scraping the incidence of "BUBBLE Ben Bernanke" on ET, indexed to a moving average, would probably be a quick and dirty solution.
     
    #490     May 10, 2013