"what makes you so confident that this will breakdown this year and not 2 -5 years from now?" ---->Same question I asked myself a few days ago, before deciding I want in. I still have an old school hard line phone in addition to my cell. I used to pay T for that service, while I paid Comcast for internet + TV. So a couple years back when Comcast decided to aggressively invade the hard-line phone space, they were pretty relentless about trying to get me to switch from AT&T to their own service- A constant barrage of junk mail, TV ads, and most annoying of all by far: One telemarketing call after another no matter how many times I told them to quit invading my privacy with that shit, and just fuck off already. But eventually comcast <i>did</i> convince me that resistance is in fact futile, and I should just drop AT&T altogether and surrender to their internet+ TV + hard line 'Triple Play' package. Why? Because adding their phone service and ditching T's simply came out cheaper than my existing setup. I mean WAY cheaper, and you <i>do</i> know what my ethnic background is here, right? So now Comcast is doing the exact same thing with residential security monitoring, and I mean the EXACT same aggressive marketing blitz, privacy invading telemarketers and all. My understanding is that Time Warner is pulling a similar deal in other major markets. So for me, the time to short ADT is now. As you may know, I don't really have any superpowers. I could be entirely wrong about this, but the trade <i>does</i> feel right. "What will be the catalyst that makes people realize the valuation may not be warranted at these levels?" ---->When ADT is forced to admit their very healthy growth projections are simply unattainable. "does your view on the overall market play into this? think a big pullback coming too?" ---->More likely than not, I kind of expect a 5%+ pullback (in spooz) starting within a month or so... but we will recover from it almost as quickly, and this won't be a big deal over the long term.
WOW ! that is educational especially for very short term traders. How easy is this days to REVERSE edge by someone with size following your trades via hidden trade duplication as YOU become target.
RM, For those of us not blessed/cursed with your particular experience/version of attitude to risk, would you have any recommendation to sizing up and getting rid of the associated mental blocks? As we all know, there's not much of a difference between going debit on your account and say a catastrophic DD (say >50%) on whatever amount of leverage. Has your blowup in 08' changed anything on this view?
Do you think you are being piggybacked or faded? Does this kind of thing make you consider keeping your calls private in future?
Regarding those 10,000 contracts traded, there was also a purchase of 15,000 ADT October 43 puts on 4/10. So some big hitter had already gotten in on this short a couple weeks ago.
"would you have any recommendation to sizing up and getting rid of the associated mental blocks?" ---->For your sake I hope your trigger-shyness issue isn't too extreme (=freezing up, unable to put on size at crucial high-conviction moments), because that's one of two trader mental blocks that I consider to be the most severe of all- even more detrimental than lack of discipline. All I can really do for you is help you realize what a serious problem trigger-shyness can be, as I've never seen this particular problem overcome by those cursed with it. If the problem is severe enough, I'd seriously recommend very extreme desperate-looking measures in attempt to solve the problem. Like alcohol, and I'm not joking because trigger shyness really is THAT BIG a problem. Alternatively, I'd look up whatever Brett Steenbarger (trader psychologist) has had to say on the subject. I'd respect his opinion, although I don't know what that may be in this case. " Has your blowup in 08' changed anything on this view?" ----> I should hope so! I guess I'll find out going forward. We'll see if I Livermore-up my account again, or not... Do you think you are being piggybacked or faded? ---> Rhetorical question, so why am I answering this? Does this kind of thing make you consider keeping your calls private in future? ---->It makes me consider buying extra (in illiquid symbols), to sell to the piggybackers! Question for whomever: Was ET down all day yesterday for y'all too? Or was that a Comcast specific issue, as has happened before?
Question some dude is about to ask me, so I might as well answer preemptively: "RM, you mentioned that trigger-shyness is one of two worst possible traits a trader can possibly have. So what's the other one? A: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1778965&highlight=beads#post1778965
From the Feedback section: Regarding NFLX, I think it is a huge short and I doubt it will be above $200 by next year... P.S.: If you are not sure if a website is down or not: http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/
Thanks Pekelo! So I don't know about you guys, but today I'm <b>starting to build</b> my long term, long GLD Jan '14 puts positions! GLD current price: $140.54. What I really want in GLD today is an even bigger, huge up day with huge volume. That will add to my confidence regarding the timing in putting on long term bear positions, and will make me more inclined to put on size today as opposed to later on. Piggyback this if you like money (you can trust me, I'm a junkie), but be aware that it's a long term position, and short term heat is always possible... Edit: To make this crystal clear, I strongly believe that shorting the bounce in gold is an absolutely fabulous idea, and GLD/GC will in fact go straight back down below recent lows. The only question here is the timing... P.S. Why GLD this time and not GC? GLD LEAPS look slightly less illiquid, as GC LEAPS spreads are wider than Perez Hilton's anus. Last edit, I promise: Shorting gold long term (really, buying back-dated puts) is a <b>very high conviction trade</b>, and I'll be allocating more size to this than I put in ADT.