RM's occasional market calls...

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Rearden Metal, Nov 8, 2010.

  1. Free real time last traded quote on StockCharts.com:

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3030222>
     
    #191     Dec 8, 2010
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Here is the thread describing it, should answer most of your questions:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=154290&highlight=dragon+pattern

    1. Both. It works with double top and bottoms.
    2. You wait for a double bottom or top and see if a Failure happens app. at the half of the Height (of the pattern). If so the math gives you the expected 3rd top/bottom.
    3. If by bounce you mean the Failure, you trade the failure and change direction at the 3rd top/bottom too.
    4. By math I refer to how the pattern is calculated. (for example 3rd top = Failure + Height)

    As a real life example of this ZSL, when I posted first around 11.2 (kind of late in the pattern) one should have been short and expecting it to fall close to 9.8. When we reached 10.25 or so that was a good point to switch to long...

    In summary the dragon pattern is a failed double top/bottom, when the trend reverses one more time and makes a 3rd top/bottom, which is easily calculated.
     
    #192     Dec 8, 2010
  3. Thank you Pekelo!
     
    #193     Dec 8, 2010
  4. Ready for another official RM market call? Here it is:

    40% of buying power: Keep in cash/flat
    30% of buying power: Long SSO (Current price: $46.63)
    15% of buying power: Long DGP (Current price: $39.86)
    15% of buying power: Long AGQ (Current price: $139.04)

    Right here, right now!
    Time frame: Hard to say, but this is a swing trade, same as all the others in this thread. Good luck...
     
    #194     Dec 17, 2010
  5. t hanks RM!
     
    #195     Dec 17, 2010
  6. Samsara

    Samsara

    Trying to think what would inspire that...

    Speculating on a flight to safety due to the solar storm? Or Moody's & Ireland. Feel free to ignore my question if it's based on anything you'd like to keep under wraps. I'm basically just curious as to what would warrant that over the weekend.
     
    #196     Dec 17, 2010
  7. One more thing I should add:

    Due to standard ETF decay, there is a slightly more efficient way to put on what amounts to essentially the same position:

    Instead of the above trade, you would do:

    40% of buying power: Keep in cash/flat
    30% of buying power: Short SDS
    15% of buying power: Short DZZ
    15% of buying power: Short ZSL

    This will generally net you a few extra cents when compared to the original position structure laid out in my last post. The only reason I posted longs instead of shorts is because I know not everyone here has access to borrowable shares in these double-inverse ETF's. Another advantage of shorts instead of longs: Prop firms pay interest on shorts and charge interest on longs.

    BTW, for 'scoreboard purposes', please consider this to be all one trade (as opposed to three separate trades).
     
    #197     Dec 17, 2010
  8. The ETF decay comes mostly from the daily re-balancing. If you plan to hold the trades just a day or two it should not be too much of a factor. You can also add/subtract from your position to counteract the ETF re-balancing effect if it becomes meaningful during the course of your trade (but of course this too causes friction).
     
    #198     Dec 17, 2010
  9. Samsara

    Samsara

    Charts looking decent as of mid-Friday. Well done so far, as usual.

    Time will tell what unfolds over the weekend and I'll be watching the news out of interest.
     
    #199     Dec 17, 2010
  10. Thanks Samsara... I've already put in small limit orders to partial out of <i>some</i> of my gold & silver in case they keep rallying nicely before the day is through. With the SSO, I'm just waiting and watching for now...

    Edit: Update- Sold 1/4 of DGP position at $40.34.
     
    #200     Dec 17, 2010