The recent rally offers at least 50 pts on the ES. It is not that far fetched to risk 10 pts to make 50 pts. If one starts with an initial stake of 10k and wait for 3 of this type of trades, then one can have 1.25 mil at the end of 3 trades. Anybody trades like that? It was just a random weekend thought. Hope to hear some views on whether it might be better to go for home runs like these instead of a long and tedious trading career.
Absolutely! Go for as big a home run as you can, so you are ensured no chance of getting stuck in a long and tedious trading career. If you don't love trading, why bother?
You're going to get a lot of argument here-especially from people who've never made a lot money-but that's EXACTLY how to make big money. Anyone here delusional enough to think they've got a "system" that allows them to tick fuck the market will be broke too. The beauty of futures is leverage. That leverage isn't meant to be used day in and day out. The advantage of leverage is so that in those rare occasions when a situation is clear-you can be LOADED UP. I did pretty much the same thing. I started trading in the bond pit with 10k. No one would trade with me and after a year I had 2k left. I then decided to pick my spots and trade 2 lots. All I had was a point cushion. I got bullish at the start of a bull market and by doubling up I ran that 2k into 600k in 100 trading days. Unfortunately that style bit me in the ass a few years later when I went from 2mil to 500k in a matter of weeks but I was still in a lot better shape than struggling with two grand....
Every trade is completely new and capable of turning against you in seconds despite your strongest belief in its "clarity". You bring my previous post to life with your experience. If the OP goes for the home run and wins, he avoids the long and tedious career. If he goes for the home run and mirrors your later experience, he avoids the long and tedious career.
Your first statement is of course true-philosophically speaking. In fact I'd argue the more committed to a trade the least likely it's the right position. On your second point: If someone is capitalized to the point-or at an age that they want safety and normal returns then of course they're not going to risk a generation of earnings on a 10pt ES stop. But for small traders who aren't looking for returns but looking for a Lotto ticket then by all means buy a lotto ticket. If I had a choice of investing in a trader who said"I'm decent on the swings I'm going to push my luck" or another who said "I'm going to trade small but for 'frequent' gains while I know statistically they'll both eventually blow out, without hesitation I'd go with the gunslinger. Your word "tedious" is important too. Don't kid yourself that consistent gains don't get tedious and breed sometimes down the road excessive risk. If our dreams and wants never evolved it would be one thing but 5 years from now what you're happy with today will bore you to-morrow. Making it in chunks cancels out a lot of growing pains....
not to mention OP has a better shot at making money by trying to hit a home run than by trying to "tick fuck" the market...unfortunately it is easier on the psyche to try and tick tock it, as opposed to watching profits ebb and flow its way to a nice cachingo...
I think a lot depends on a person's personality. Let's say you were able to buy ES right at the bottom (on 3/8) and the market goes your way as intended, there were approx. three 20 points pullbacks from 3/8 till 3/13. The question is can you handle it psychologically? The first pullback came to 4 points from the entry. How would you have felt if you were stopped out on the trade when you were up 30 points at one time?
Moreover, it's always easier said than done--after the fact. Why wasn't this posted 5 days ago? To say that you knew (or know now) that it would go up (or has gone up) nearly 100 points is downright amateurish. Get over it. It's only a noob's fantasy.