Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by riskarb, Jan 12, 2006.

  1. cnms2

    cnms2

    The IV chart and the options chain I posted came from my optionsXpress account. To post screen shots I use a freeware: IrfanView.
     
    #581     Apr 18, 2006
  2. I may be certifiably-insane, but I sold a bunch of the Jan07 45 straddles in RMBS this week at vols near 75% and >$22. Also sold the Jan07 35 1x2 call/put pitchfork at 74 vols and >$27.

    Here's hoping the stat vol comes in as much as the IV. Somehow I doubt it.
     
    #582     Apr 18, 2006
  3. mahras2

    mahras2

    Well I am planning on joining in that certifiably insane category: Tomorrow I will try to open a May 06 1x2 pitch fork (35 calls and puts). Making a small bet to practice. Why are you doing the back months?
     
    #583     Apr 18, 2006
  4. boy...my hat's off to you guys if you can successful game rmbs!
     
    #584     Apr 18, 2006

  5. For the vega. Front month is all gamma, and I don't want to be primarily short gamma/vega.
     
    #585     Apr 18, 2006
  6. mahras2

    mahras2

    Hmm gotcha, I hadn't viewed it that way actually.
     
    #586     Apr 18, 2006
  7. Don't do the 35 May pitchfork -- 35 if too far otm to trade the front month, too many deltas. Go with the 40 for May or one of the back month 35s.
     
    #587     Apr 18, 2006
  8. Is the pitchfork because your bias is to the downside for RMBS? Or just so your maximum profit is if the stock price is between 35 and 45?
    Is your trade similar to this:
    Short 10 Jan35 Calls, Short 10 Jan45 Calls,
    Short 20 Jan35 Puts, Short 10 Jan45 Puts
    What is the timeframe when you would take this trade off Riskarb?
    Also, thank you for sharing your ideas. It means alot.

    frisbeeca
     
    #588     Apr 18, 2006
  9. mahras2

    mahras2

    Thanks for the pointer. I will eye the Aug or Nov ones then. The 40s on May look nice though (increases the BE point on the upside+more credit)
     
    #589     Apr 18, 2006
  10. Hey Frisbeeca,

    I coined the term as it resembles a two-pronged pitchfork[tm]. You can go long or short, but it's primarily a skew-trade in index markets. The standard trade in index is to sell two otm puts/one itm call, same strike. There are a few other relative value parms that need to be met, but that's for another thread.

    I would avoid trading them as put and call combos above and below the market unless you're buying one and selling the other[pitch].

    I can't really get into my specific metrics, but they perform well under 1-1.5 sigmas; similar to a classic straddle with smaller neutral gammas and larger dgamma risk. They're fairly complicated to trade even with the simple structure.

    A quick and dirty parm for pitchfork[tm]/straddle equivalence:

    Pitchfork[tm] credit > ((atm straddle)/2)*3 ... or more simply (atm straddle)*1.5 for a 3-way pitchfork[tm]; ( ... )*2 for a 1x3 pitchfork[tm], but I don't recommend those unless the smile is nearly linear out to 4-5 sigmas.

    These aren't good for shotgunning in all available tickers, but obviously the edge in vol from +skew equates to a smaller neutral gamma risk[gamma edge].
     
    #590     Apr 18, 2006