IV trader, Thanks for your response on FFIV. INFY is reporting earnings tomorrow . IV for Apr 75 call/put is at 50. I am expecting IV to drop to 35sh. History indicates that stock drops about 5-10 % after the earnings. I want to analyze RC on this. Apr 75 call - IV 50% , Vega 0.05 , price 2.65 May 75 call - IV 35% , Vega 0.10 , price 3.50 Total position delta is -3.17 and total credit 0.80 I simulated this trade in TOS. When the IV of APR 75 call drops to 35%, then it shows that the position loses value. Is this correct because May 75 call with higher vega should lose more than APR 75 call . If IV of May does not drop, then this position lose value. Just want to know your thoughts. thxs. Do you use any ratio for RC to make it delta neutral. When do you calls vs puts.
Unless stock tanks big , the "morning after" vols on INFY will definetly break , let's use 27 , then: APR vega loss = (50-27)*.05=1.15 MAY vega loss=(35-27)*.10=0.80 From here your guess is good as my (price action). I do 1:1 ratio calls(or puts) only , and only if stock's price is around the strike. I also use the rule of thumb : 15 ents premium per every 10$ of nominal , so ideally INFY credit should be 1.10 for ATM RC.
A word of caution on INFY. This isn't a normal earning report. They are discussing a stock bonus to be announced at the earnings conference. These bonuses have been very generous in the past. This one could do wierd things with the price action and IV.
The short calendar carries a substantial gamma position. You can't simply rely on a implosion in net-vols and vega gains. If the thing doesn't move you'll gain a bit more on vega, but lose on gamma. It's not a slam dunk by any means.
agree , real profit comes only with large move , but the neutral (or almost ) vega allowed you to participate in potential big price move without risking a lot.
Agree, for the most part. A 1:1 neutral-delta short calendar carries vegas. Mitigated somewhat by time-skew.
yesterday potential RC candidate , IFIN. While the price action was very disappointing ( only 3.5% , this stock moved 20+ many times before) , position still broke even because of neutral vega. Notice , that long (APR) already at the max loss ; if price will continue to go down , the short (May) will gain. Summery : Positive Gamma + neutral Vega = very low risk strategy.
There must have been at least 2000basis in tenor-skew to produce neutral vega on an atm time spread. It's the only explanation for neutral atm vega position. What makes the position low risk is the negative tenor skew. If the horizontal vols were flat or within 1000basis the position would be decidedly long vega. Low risk, but low reward as well. Time spreads traded through the reports are typically wasted effort; either from the long or short side. It required >3% to b/e.
Calculon, You talks like riskarb but not the same person. Can you please exaplain 1. 2000 basis 2. tenor skew Thanks, -Nick