Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by riskarb, Jan 12, 2006.

  1. Well with the baby FLYs all I will be focused on really is taking in credits on them when I can to reduce the cost of the large FLY. A $50-point wide GOOG FLY will have about 100 imbedded FLYs spread throughout so if I can sell 5 here or 10 there I can reduce the cost and only slightly affect the profit profile. I was testing this with SPX but the b/a spreads on the BABYs make it impossible. I am going to test it on GOOG. I will include it here if you want to follow and see if there is anything to it. I have followed some trades like it that Charles Cottle did and there is nice profit potential with limited risk. I will let you know :).
     
    #501     Mar 14, 2006
  2. Sold 5 SPX MAR 1285 Straddles @ $11.80.

    With 2 days to expiration, theta and my expectation that we will pull back some today late or tomorrow I took a bearish bias. Also with 1295 resistance being quite strong, worst case me might get pinned to it by Thursday where I will convert or get out. I will most likely get out on Thursday since I do not want to play with triple witching SET but depends where the market goes.
     
    #502     Mar 14, 2006
  3. Sold it at $46 yesterday, trading $42 at 50% vols at $342 on the shares. I think we could trade South of 45% vols within a week.
     
    #503     Mar 14, 2006
  4. pismo10

    pismo10

    Great GOOG trade, I've been watching it drift down all day today. So nice.
     
    #504     Mar 14, 2006
  5. Thanks Pismo. Sold the 30-wide iron fly for $4.00 risk credit.

    Sold some TS Apr 180 straddles for 21.00 at 43% vol.
     
    #505     Mar 15, 2006
  6. Risk: Why?--Please see the attached figure

    Ben,
     
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    #506     Mar 15, 2006
  7. The 46% vols occurred pre-release -- vols have dropped only 300bp since the 4th quarter report.
     
    #507     Mar 15, 2006
  8. Vols have collapsed to 18%. The straddle is currently trading at 680. Offset 7 of the straddles and converted a few to 500-wide iron flies at a 30 tick lock. I'll offset the remainder on Monday.
     
    #508     Mar 16, 2006
  9. Closed the remaining 30 synthetic straddles at 640 to the buy.
     
    #509     Mar 17, 2006
  10. Typo, remaining 15; closed the 15x30 synthetic straddle in calls.
     
    #510     Mar 17, 2006