Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by riskarb, Jan 12, 2006.

  1. Don't blink, this is moving a point a second. Rev projection sucks; this thing won't revisit the highs.
     
    #261     Feb 2, 2006
  2. did anyone entered short ERTS as I suggested ?
    flat AH
     
    #262     Feb 2, 2006
  3. Last quotes I just check just showed a b/a of $127 so it seems to be back where it was but I do not trust that number.


     
    #263     Feb 2, 2006
  4. No, that number isn't accurate. It closed at 115.50 bid.
     
    #264     Feb 2, 2006
  5. Oh ok, well with the IV collapse I should still see a few points in the straddle, the IV was 104% when I put on the trade and the next month was in the 70s I think.

     
    #265     Feb 2, 2006
  6. The stock closed the day-session at $127.25x26 -- many vendors use the NYSE close to denote daily change. You're good down to $111 or so. I do expect some downgrades based upon forward revs.
     
    #266     Feb 2, 2006
  7. Optioncoach,

    Boy, what a wild AH move-- near 25% move in under an hour. I have strong feeling you're gonna be just fine and ISRG will most likely trade in the low to mid 120's before noon tomorrow. Nice play and best of luck.
     
    #267     Feb 2, 2006
  8. Now you're doomed OC.
     
    #268     Feb 2, 2006
  9. Why? LOL


    Feb $130 Straddle sold @ $21.70 IV ~104%

    Using option calculator:

    Assuming S = $117 and IV = 80%
    Straddle = $19.30

    Assuming S = $117 and IV = 70%
    Straddle = $17.65

    Assuming S = $110 and IV = 80%
    Straddle = $22.30

    Assuming S = $120 and IV = 80%
    Straddle = $18.00

    So lots of different scenarios. MAR is trading at 70% so if IV crashes it might go to 80 or hopefully close to MAR vols but with drop in price I expect it to stay somewhat higher.

     
    #269     Feb 2, 2006
  10. iv will go to 50th tomorrow
     
    #270     Feb 2, 2006