The static-expectancy[vol & share price] on the 4-way is +$3.77. (body 7d decay) + (wing 7d decay); So that the converted fly should express $3.77 in edge over the marked-fly. This is nearly best-case, but a drop in vols would add some edge.
Bee-ach LOL...As usual you got in at an IV higher than me lol. The price has come down thanks to some theta and I expect the stock to keep holding here in anticipation of earnings next week. So by Wed or Thu I will either take a small profit or convert.
XOM's good news has pushed OIH higher so I will be following closely to see if I want to take the whole thing off or convert to spread for potential price pullback as expiration gets closer. If that is the case I may just let it ride and get out if OIH hits $161, my expiration breakeven point. Another candidate for you riskarb: BMHC @ $81 with $80 straddle at 55% vols, not extraordinarily high but high since NOV. Earnings due on 2/7. Just looking for now, no position.
I decided this was a good candidate but at 75 so thru a bid on a one lot straddle on my new paper trade account...didn't get filled and I even gave a dime to the MM imagine on a paper trade...how real is that!
Disk failure on my bbg machine, but I have it on my laptop as well, so I will scan tonight and post a list of tickers. Missed the weekend, but vols will remain bid into the fed. You may want to consider selling an atm index straddle tomorrow near 2pm EST -- either an NDX or an RUT/ER2. I have access to the Nas Comp on the exotic side, so I will trade a 14d synthetic-exotic on COMPQ.