Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by riskarb, Jan 12, 2006.

  1. Well basically if I assigned on the short $400, the long $390 backs it up so early assignment allows me to get the max value early instead of waiting for expiration so I take it as a good thing.

    I could also roll the $390/$400 bull call spread into a $390/$400/$410 long butterfly and bring in $3,350 in credit to reduce the max loss from $9,100 to $5,750 locked in and have much lower risk. But since I now feel GOOG will stay above $400 I will shoot for the $4,100. I can pursue that later when theta squeezes out some of the premium and that spread gets wider if I change my mind.

    The point is that if choose to pursue more small positions in these I should have a few at a time as Risk does to spread out the diversification. This way I can chop off the losses on positions like GOOG fairly easy at a predetermined point and milk the winners to come out net ahead.

    Worthwhile tuition which I am going to make back on OIH ;)




     
    #131     Jan 24, 2006
  2. Hahaha. You sound a bit like Tony Soprano with that one. Yeah, you're not the first on this forum to push the prego. You should talk to GATrader; none of this fancy, little Lord Fauntleroy, prissy prego stuff. No estrogen! [Accept my apologies DonnaV].

    What's next? The low carb combo?
     
    #132     Jan 24, 2006
  3. Vols in share-options tend to drop into a tighter distro, and otm calls dominate the smile, depressing vols on declines within 1 sigma; like Kobe/Raptors!
     
    #133     Jan 24, 2006
  4. GOOG covered at $70.00 -- $1500 loss -- will update PnL today and to contrast fly debits, converted vs. mark to market.
     
    #134     Jan 25, 2006
  5. $1,500? I guess you only did 1... lol

    I am looking at ACL @ $128.85

    FEB $130 Straddle at $10.60 at 41% vol at an extreme high with HV at around 26%. Earnings coming out 2/8.

    I might do this and OIH today...

     
    #135     Jan 25, 2006
  6. Actually, I did. For the journal all trades are single contract basis. I am short xxx of 530 and 600 calls/long shares.

    I won't run the scan until tomorrow afternoon for the weekend combos, but I'll watch ACL and see if it comes up on bbg OSCN.
     
    #136     Jan 25, 2006
  7. I am gonna try and get in today to front-run you ;). Actually I might be out most of the day tomorrow so I may put the orders for OIH and ACL near the end of the day.

     
    #137     Jan 25, 2006
  8. Journal took a hit with GOOG, was flat PnL before that debacle. I blame Coach for strike selection. ;)

    I will trade one of the following, when/if hedging is performed:


    1) Index futures hedge into book-delta, VaR. This would be traded <7d to expiration

    2) Index wing strike purchase concurrent with the purchase of ticker wings. Sum of marked debit risk on ticker flies = debit outlay on index wings.

    3) Index straddles in cheap-gamma such as Dow, DIA, YM. Sum of marked debit risk on ticker flies = debit outlay on index body.

    Both two and three would involve discrete hedge adds due to a daily mark to market on the fly risk-debits. There would certainly be days in which no hedge would be traded unless a material increase was seen in mark to market PnL on the flies.

    The index replication under two and three is long the vol box; in effect, a short dispersion strategy. I don't want to complicate things, just to define.

    On many occasions the fly debits may allow us to offset significant gains w/o the need for an intermarket hedge.
     
    #138     Jan 25, 2006
  9. I blame Cramer-ites and brokerages who jump on chair and scream GOOG is going to $600. $1,500 is not even an anthill for you to surmount.

    As for the other parts of your post, I ain't even gonna try and translate that...

     
    #139     Jan 25, 2006
  10. #1 would involve trading futures against the fly debit risks.

    #2 and #3 are simply index wing or body longs in which the premium outlay would be = the running sum of the debit risks on the completed flies. I'd buy $1,000 in index strangles, or preferably straddles, into the market debit risk on our flies.

    Jeez, talk about bad timing in GOOG. :eek:
     
    #140     Jan 25, 2006