Risk reward sucks for options

Discussion in 'Options' started by wxytrader, Jul 29, 2024.


  1. Ok the spread is out because you risk 375 for a max gain of 125 so 3:1 rw.
    Let me check the fly...
     
    #11     Jul 29, 2024
  2. poopy

    poopy


    lol wut?

    Both are asym+ returns.
     
    #12     Jul 29, 2024
  3. poopy

    poopy


    The TOS stress is a 4/1 return. The Hanweck (top) is simply a exp plot of a vertical (fly) and 1/1 risk at the tails but +exp due to the fly bump.
     
    #13     Jul 29, 2024
  4. poopy

    poopy


    Bull skew lock in NVDA (3-term) and index hedge. trivial long vega but left tail volcorr and upside sticky D on index. Correlation risk but it's an arb.
     
    #14     Jul 29, 2024
  5. I must have messed up.

    The NVDA returns @ expiry for the spread is 255 max profit while risking -245.
    The NVDA returns @ expiry for the fly are max profit 1445 peak, 945 while risking -1045.

    Fly is the best. :)

    upload_2024-7-29_14-9-30.png

    upload_2024-7-29_14-8-1.png
     
    #15     Jul 29, 2024
  6. poopy

    poopy


    RUOK? The risk is symmetric. It's essentially a corridor long (fly) and the complex position (TOS pic) is >4/1 return at tails.

    Where do see 375 risk to make 125? Miss second grade math?
     
    #16     Jul 29, 2024
  7. No actually I took it twice! :)
    (I corrected it...yes they are symmetric...so which is better flys or spreads?)
     
    #17     Jul 29, 2024
  8. poopy

    poopy


    Well the complex thing is infinitely better and near RT-neutral vega but I take issue with this thread/title. Only addicts knowingly act contrary to self interest (basically all of ET); so who is going to take a pick-'em payoff at -edge? And you gotta stop with these clickbaity threads bc they are stupid.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2024
    #18     Jul 29, 2024
    wxytrader likes this.
  9. taowave

    taowave

    Why NO??

    Does it have anything to do with his stumbling and fumbling calculating a 1 SD move??

    Check his math...

    Clown show
     
    #19     Jul 29, 2024
  10. Yes I am seeing that now with the pnl...into profits earlier with price at 114 on AUG 1 you pnl 124.43 whereas with the spread you are still at a -1.03 loss. :)

    btw the title was more of a knee jerk way to vent frustration when I failed to see a way to capitalize on a NVDA move. So tomorrow I will look at putting on a fly... :)

    upload_2024-7-29_15-42-43.png

    upload_2024-7-29_15-43-29.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2024
    #20     Jul 29, 2024