Risk management and odds

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by NKNY, Jun 13, 2001.

  1. "....maybe I am bitter and sceptical and
    cynical...I have earned it. I see too many young people
    get into trading as it's a hobby and a casino. Don't get
    me wrong I love to gamble !!! I played poker, lived in Las
    Vegas, played stocks and traded futures on the floor. Basically a hard core gambler. But guess what I am not
    rich and can't just retire as we all like to. I also
    studied Technical Analisys and if knowlege of that would
    make anyone rich I would be sitting on a beach somewhere.
    The biggest Con going around now ,fooling the world and
    mainly Americans is DayTRading."


    I was under the impression that good traders don't 'gamble' or 'play' stocks. Also, knowledge of Technical Analysis won't make any trader rich, but proper use of it by a competent trader with the discipline not to 'gamble' or to 'play' may help one get there slowly.
    Not everyone can become a competent trader, as you seem to have found out after 20 years, however I don't think you are helping potential successful traders by parading your bitterness and cynicism in this forum.
    #31     Jun 15, 2001
  2. tymjr


    At the risk of becoming a target myself, I feel as though you guys are being way to hard on Andrasnm. I have been trading for a living for a long time and I understand how difficult it can be to consistently put together a winning record, to be “a man for all seasons.” It requires much more than I or many others had thought in our infancy. It is tough to come to the realization that in many areas the deck is stacked against you. I do not believe that pointing this out is a disservice to those that are new to this business.

    The dream of trading is all to often paraded about by those who stand to benefit from other's ignorance. Rarely, does anyone discuss the potential dangers, difficulties, and ironies that are all too prevalent. I know a number of people who have blown out because these factors did not weigh heavily in their minds. Not truly understanding the inherent risk destroyed them long before they had any idea of what it took to succeed.

    That being said, obviously some do succeed. Everyone wants to believe that success is attributable to some concrete trait or set of characteristics. I think that whether this is a myth or not it serves us to believe that it is true. It drives us. Even so, those who have seen the traps and are willing to discuss their experiences and cautions should be welcomed.
    Though I have yet to suffer dramatic losses I wish that I had listened more intently to some of those that had some interesting and useful experiences. Listening to some things I didn't want to hear would have saved me from some painful lessons. I hope that some people will use all the comments by the traders on this page as roadmap, not unduly influenced by extreme pessimism or optimism.

    If I sound like a preachy ass, so be it. I have been around, lost, prospered, and survived. I am just like most everyone else out there. I find most all the comments useful in one way or another. So thanks to all you guys, on this forum and others, past and present.

    #32     Jun 15, 2001
  3. I was attempting to add you guys a different view on "life
    as a trader". i.e. it does not have to be full time nor
    it has to be darting in and out of positions. Obviously you
    fail to see it and I am sure many BB style forums my opinions are not the popular ones. I don't post them to be
    liked or to be the GUY/mr. optimist etc. I don't have any
    allusions that open honest and furthermore open minded
    discussion can be done on a forum so geared towards commission cow for the EDAT broker's (yes Barron, I feel this way). The fact that I am in the game every day or at least every week speaks for itself. I'm not a very succesful FT trader like most of you guys some of whom some has never finished college let alone high school.
    This is my last post. I am obviously bothering some of you. Having "pipe dreams" to be the next Daytrader writting a book and making fame will be easier without my posts.
    I appreciate the ones here who are here smart and may lurk on withoput wasting my time posting. good luck to you all.
    #33     Jun 15, 2001
  4. WarEagle

    WarEagle Moderator

    Hi all,

    I normally don't jump into the middle of arguments like this (if you can really call it that...compared to the Ken Calhoun thing its like a ladies tea party), but I believe this subject is probably the most important for new or previously unsuccessful traders to confront.

    Everyone that has posted on this thread have made valid points, on both sides. Commisso is right about taking a positive attitude into this business, and I love to read success stories like his as it is valuable for people to see that it can be done.

    On the flip side, Andras has an equally valid view and tymjr is right on. It is important for aspiring traders to realize that this business is NOT for everyone, and many, many people will never be successful at it, just as with any profession. The only difference is that in all other jobs, your success is not measured on a daily profit/loss basis, so the feedback is not as immediate and psychologically devastating as it can be in trading. I think it is very important for anyone going into this field that they FULLY understand the risks and odds stacked against them. But I also encourage anyone who has a dream of doing this to go for it, just do so with your eyes wide open and with realistic expectations.

    Andras, I would hope that you won't stop participating on this board. You have much to add from your experiences as does everyone else here. Its the ability of the participants to civily debate the important issues that makes this board such a great place. And this issue requires this type of debate, it does a service to everyone involved, especially the lurkers out there who might not have the guts to ask the hard questions.

    Well, that's enough I think...I was starting to hear the national anthem playing in the background...

    Good trading to everyone,

    #34     Jun 15, 2001
  5. tymjr


    Very well said WarEagle. I also hope Andrasnm does not stop posting. I learn and unlearn from reflecting on all the opinions expressed here, be it a novice who contributes something in a new light or a veteran who passes on some piece of hard earned info.
    #35     Jun 15, 2001
  6. Zarrar



    I hope you don't stop posting to this forum. As mentioned by many here, this forum is a collective resource from many individuals. It would be a loss to lose even one elemental resource such as your experiences, im sure we can all learn from you, and perhaps you can learn from the forum to augment your own trading practice, i am open ears.
    #36     Jun 15, 2001
  7. Zarrar


    A note on trading, its not as hard or complex as it may become by over analyzing. I can tell you that my own issues have in the past been of over analysis where I had identified the trend, had confirmation, knew exactly when to enter, but never pulled the trigger out of fear. Only to later find out that pullng the trigger would have yielded profitability. Im sure there are many who are not afraid to pull the trigger but enter or exit at the wrong time. Either way, my point is that trading can be narrowed down to a few basic principles, by which it is hoped that anyone can succeed as a trader. I had outlined the basics in another post, but I'll mention it again:

    1) determine your trading time frame, will it be intraday, several days or long term. Day trading is intraday.
    2) pick a stock or several that have decent trading volume, between 500k to 1M at least. Also that they move in at least a point or two daily.
    3) determine their 10 day, 30, and 5 day trend to see where you can enter.
    4) finally, in the intraday trading, use stochatic indicators to determine entry and exit points.

    This is what I have narrowed it down to, if anyone begs to differ or knows of a better way, please let speak up.
    #37     Jun 15, 2001
  8. Jeffrey



    Your posting have been great in that they stimulated lurkers to respond.

    I understand that your comments apply to better than 90% of wanna-bee traders(I replace rich with successful).

    If you believe it applies to 100%, that's ok. But, you had to expect some heat on this. lol

    You helped this thread with a good discussion.


    #38     Jun 16, 2001
  9. tom_p


    I can remember Andras' posts from rgp (rec.gambling.poker) and '2+2' (also poker) going back 3 or 4 years ago, not to mention this forum. He always speaks his mind, and I'll lay even money that he'll be back here posting before any one of the following events occur
    (1) CSCO warns again
    (2) SuperSOES comes into effect
    (3) NASDAQ hits 1900 or 2156
    (4) DOW recrosses 11000
    #39     Jun 16, 2001
  10. tradeRX


    whose mind would he speak if not his own?

    #40     Jun 16, 2001