Are you surprised that markets can be completely irrational and detached from any logic for a long time? I am also looking for a top here, every brokerage house is upgrading companies worldwide as if there was no tomorrow, there is so much excitement in the market, there is no broker left who has not "officially" (whatever it means) declared an end to this recession. This market has in part come back to pre-Lehman levels which I find utterly absurd. Money was printed out of thin air and pushed markets up as if we never went through any crisis. I would not have any issue with this whatsoever if this was 5-6 years after the financial crisis but 11-12 months? Yet, this is where markets are. We dont win prices for being logical or right, but whether we are up in the end of each month. If I looked at ET in any other way than a medium to amuse myself then I would be convinced we have almost reached top, judging from the disappearance of all the bears but a few remaining nut cases. Everyone else in this world including most "traders" have completely turned bullish and stopped to respect the fair value of risk. Time to get ready...
the fed needs dow @10,000 to help sell the gospel to the sheeple. I think we will hit that mark soon but what lies ahead scares the hell out of me. I am currently buying calls on the FXP = (short china ) and also calls on the TWM = (short Russell) they are both ultra short ETF options. I will probably throw in some SPY puts soon also. I quess its no secret how I feel about this rally. I will lock in some profit on any good corrections. and attempt to re-enter short again on rallys. one thing though., it always amaizes me on how far the pendulum can swing before sanity returns. This thing could go alot higher. That's why we use stops. good trading
Like I said this market reminds me of 2007 when everyone said the market was going even higher after breaking numerous upside targets. The economy was 10000000000 times better in 2007 then it is today, today I believe the markets are way overbought considering where the economy is. Everyone says the markets are forward looking, when the markets were at new highs in 2007 how forward looking were they??????? I find it hard to believe how far out looking markets can be. Right now the markets aren't looking for anything going forward, they are actually being propped up to make most believe the economy is turning around. There is going to be a top as there always is, when and where is anyones guess, but the stronger the move up the quicker the drop.
Upgrades just keep coming, its the only way to keep the excitement going. Some of these stocks being upgraded in the past month or so are up HUNDREDS of percent. Why buy a stock up over 200% after they upgrade it. You have to be an idiot.
Downswing is in the cards for the simple reason that good news is all over the place. This is like 1983, when the correction that year started once everyone began to worry that the Fed would raise rates. This time it will be worry about the Fed draining off all the stuff they've been doing. Same difference. Playing it like it's actually going to be the end of the world is not a strategy. It's an ideology. That won't put any money in your wallet.
oups... am i (ever) whining? and talking about the mirror... with your record it is a different matter - your posting of whining articles for 6 month in the biggest rally ever is some kind of achievement. you could shake hands with marketsurfer well, anybody who was reasonable enough to understand that we are in a period "a la first half of 2008" - just more extreme - made a killing in the past 6 months . the government has written a big put under the market (ok, it needs to be said that they did it with borrowed money, i.e. on margin). we may be for a sell-off "a la second half of 2008" but not anytime soon. as far as i see there are no catalyst that would not be implicitly or explicitly bailed out already. in the long term the market will have it tough - no question about that. there is a triple taxation of consumer coming, i.e. higher rates, inflation and taxes. but this would be a long term perspective and it is even questionable that e.g. stocks are going to be the worst place to be in... remember it is all about money flow (and asia). that said i am the lightest on the market anytime since jan09. maybe pabst could use me as another contrarian indicator and go long just in the wrong time?
JPM can do their dirty FX trades, but not with gold if there is no physical gold at their hands for delivery. Especially if the counter party demands immediate gold delivery. It is similar to the cruel oil trick to hold tankers of oil in the sea... What I wanted to say is that I see is the potential of a real war coming. As a minimum, it will be full scale economic actions. Hopefully not physical assaults.