Fed liquidity has nothing to do with smartphone business. People would buy smartphones even in the worst of times. Like I said, many people consider their smartphones an essential as opposed to a luxury. You could be right about RIMM being past it's prime, but I still think they will be the market leader for some time yet. If not them, who?
The margin grew this quarter, but that's already out. You need to look five years out my friend. Noone that have the capability to compete will sit on their asses and let RIMM/APPLE/PALM making 40% margin on something and not do a damn thing about it. Which is why I mentioned pricing is becoming an increasing factor. You cannot ignore the iPhone at $99- not so much I think that's a bargain or whatever, but the lowering prices is definitely something that will sweep the industry the next few years. And let's not forget upstart like HTC pairing up with Google Andriods.
you got burned by the earnings rule, which is... anyone? bueller? buy the stock off the bottom, anywhere between 72-73-74, you'll see $5-6 jump in it next week, maybe double that. B10000RIMM@74.60
You are absolutely correct with respect to your 5 year time frame, but I am not looking that far ahead. Simple microeconomics tells us that competition will inevitably increase and margins will inevitably be squeezed. The only way RIMM can stop this is by continuously being able to develop new technology and superior products than their competitors, which I'm not sure is entirely possible in this situation. My point is that the data is showing widening margins (technically speaking, but for all intents and purposes we'll say stable margins) for the time being. Right now RIMM has a great business and great market share, but as you said, five years down the road will likely be a different story.
This is 2009 not 2006. Wake up. A necessity? Yeah, maybe if you're retarded. I have a Blackberry smartphone and it's whatever. I prefer using my computer for computer like functions, not a phone. Not many people are left who actually go out there and buy smartphones at full retail price. I dunno if you even realize, but most of those phones you see are acquired via signing cellular contracts. The markets for smartphones that are bought at full retail are overseas. And last I checked, there is a global recession.
RIMM needs to look like it is taking market share. iPhone is a big challenger. At RIMM's valuation they needed to say that they were a contender in the ring with AAPL but it didn't come off in the conference call that way. The results were good but AAPL was smoking the numbers. RIMM needed to also smoke the numbers. The $99 iPhone is an issue for RIMM in the PDA market.
Just because your IQ is dropping by the day, does not mean everyone else's is. I am not impressed by the Smartphone whatsoever, it's just another phone to me with gimped internet & email access. Sorry, but if you REALLY need to have access to your emails & documents on the run, you can get a Netbook with mobile access. The Investment Banker demographic that made the PDA/Blackberry phone so popular is shrinking. And most of the users are just pretenders, hence why these smartphones are a luxury, not a necessity.