I avoid trades like that by adhering to one simple rule.Dont trade on what SHOULD be happening, trade on what IS happening.Especially now, when very few things about the market make sense.Similarities are reminding me of late '99.
Better said Nitro.Example,the major indexes are overdue for a correction,but I wouldn't be trying to short them here because the money supply is currently unfettered.No matter the overvaluations my data suggests,no matter how high institutional investors push the indexes,and throw historical comparisons out the window,the fact is we should have already seen a correction had it not been for the excess money supply.This would also suggest that the indexes will continue to creep up aslong as the money supply stays constant and index calls for the short-term would be in order,despite being against my better judgement.
The stock closed 69.61 the day when the above was posted (it shot up 50% that day, on volume of 58 mln shares). I didn't believe it back then but now 69 days later it is a fact - RIMM closed at 100.79
i shorted rimm calls when the underlyer was at 93.and some change.....it broke down and i coverd for a healthy trade. Now, im short a few more calls and long more stock for a hedge. RIMM is a tricky trade, im not as heavy short as i was at 93, but i just started to short it again....
shorted RIMM calls around theunderlyer price of 99.20 or so....not worried at all, looking for RIMM to pull back to 88 or 87 where i covered last time.