RIMM earnings today December 17th 2009.

Rimm has earnings tonight and I believe they aren't going to do so well, especially when it comes to profit margins, aside from that the other thing to start worrying about with RIMM is that competition has never been this great for them, nearly every quarter RIMM is facing increased competition from the likes of the IPhone, Palm Pre/Pixi/ Motorola Droid...

Some newer smartphones from HTC and new phones from newer companies are also coming to market, Dell is working on a smartphone, Garmin Nuviphone has just come to the market and now google is weeks away from releasing their Nexus One. Rimm is in direct competition with every smartphone that comes to market and will be losing much market share do this in due time.


I would NOT buy rimm ahead of earnings, I think the stock is fairly valued at $60+, with all increased competition on the way I think it does take a toll on earnings going forward.
I think rimm is a sell with a 6 month price target of $45-$50.

 

Are you personally short?

In your price target, have you factored in RIMM's recent deal to sell in China?

 

Wow what a surprise! This must be the 20th "earnings" thread you post and not a SINGLE time were you bullish into earnings of RIMM/MA/MSFT/AAPL/CSCO etc.

 

67.88
64.88
64.48
64.00 (The open today)
63.44
62.82

Now see if you can do something with these price levels – screw the earnings

IMHO of course


Merry Christmas

RN

 

Gap will be filled. RIMM is still cheap.

 

Love it when a permabear gets slaughtered! Good thing you don't put real money down.

 

Just like on the last 20 bearish earnings previews of his

 

This one is for the newer traders (the ones who really want to learn this craft)… The pros already know it, the wannabees will try to exploit it……


Time to keep it real


I posted the above – and based on it one could have


Long @ 63.44 held to 64.00

Shorted @ 64.00 held to 63.57

Shorted @ ~63.88 held to 63.44

Total move ~$1.43 x 1K shares each trade = ~$1,400.00 less commissions (not a bad day)


HOWEVER

If for one damn second you think I had a position on at the close – you are dead wrong

I am always flat before earnings, and announcements – ALWAYS


An amateur or fool would have tried to play RIMM right before the earnings, not a pro…. Learn the difference

You want to make it in this business – become a trader – not some damn flash in the pan

Learn to trade and money will roll into your lap…., try to take a short cut – and I and a few others will cut you off at your f’n knees


I could care less about the move after hours… I will trade the reaction tomorrow, and in the coming days (and to think some say psychology has no part of trading – my ass)… and make money… It is what I do everyday…



Btw – the levels I posted could have just as easily been dead wrong – today I got lucky – nothing more


Food for thought…..

I do not know what the market will do tomorrow, nor do I need to – I will trade it and either lose or make money

I always – Protect capital first, make money second


So before we pat ourselves on the back – tomorrow is just another day – no better or worse than today – and we trade it


Just a dumbass trader’s perspective – nothing more

RN

 

Please know I’m posting this not out of any ego – but as a tool


Several months ago I had posted “I believe price has memory” – however a more accurate way I view price is – as a magnet… (magnets have the ability to attract and repel)



For the last 7 days $67.88 has acted just like a magnet (pull up a intraday & daily chart and take a look)


For the last 6 days RIMM has been consolidating (the spring is coiling) around $67.88


Now to add a little psychology -

Shorts (from Dec 11 – 17) are feelin some pain
Longs (from Dec 18, 21, 22) are feelin some pain

Aside – The weak long and shorts have long since exited – no doubt for a loss



So the questions to answer;

Who is feelin more pain?
Who is likely to relent first?

Who is likely to step up with some money to spend – and spend it….



Answering these will lead to an indication of what price may do next

And obviously one can use $67.88 as a reference - either way it goes

And I believe when it pops - it will pop hard


I could answer the above – but you're not me, we trade differently, and my answers would be useless - to you



Once again $67.88 could have been dead wrong…. There was no magic, no special skills, no crystal ball – in picking this price… Just plain ole common sense and a watchful eye


eta - And maybe this (my) whole analysis is wrong - only time will tell


Food for thought – and nothing more - for those really trying to learn this craft



Respectfully

RN