Riding MESM20 to 3100!

Define "predictable"

 

The fact that it's super obvious that stock indices will rise after the virus scare has passed. And all other things you can associate with that.

 

Trade only a few times a year in that exact situation.

For example, I used this pattern to (sort of) go long (OTM calls) last week. And I did it before when NQ crashed from 9200 to whatever before, etc etc. You only need to do this a few times a year.

Find a pattern you like.



The problem I have is that I don't yet trust myself, but as time goes by I develop more confidence in my abilities. But there are thousands of patterns on all time frames.

 

In my humble, personal opinion...before this can happen, we will need to see the Mini Russell above 1236. As long as the mini Russell ( who I seem to think has been a leading indicator) closes below this level on a daily basis, the bears are still in control.
That being said, I have been wrong many times before....

 

And also, the market is not random. I don't know which retard academic came up with this but it is not random. There are WAY too many coincidences I find across COMPLETELY DISPARATE measure that coincide.

For example, I have a system that calculates day's range. Today (or yesterday?) it calculated the range such that it coincided exactly with resistance from 3 weeks ago. Like, WTF IS THAT. There is no concept of resistance in my system. But this happens ALL THE TIME.

Why the fuck.

Not random.

Yes, I could be fooled by randomness.

 

The hell you doing? Didn't you learn your lessons on trying to swing CL?

You bought 11 contracts of June MES. That's like $14.5K of margin needed. If MES drops 100 points, yer down 5500 bux. So now yer at $20K needed in your account.

If you wanted to swing through your idea of markets recovering, you should have bought the Z contract, December.

Something tells me you are not cut out for swinging. You are taking on too much margin risk. You should have bought 2-3 contracts MAX, considering where we could be by the time rollover of June ES comes.

 

If it's not where I want it to be by June, can't I just sell June and buy December at that point?

 

$14.5k is nothing compared to the $49k I had in the oil futures.

 

Well, sure! The only problem with that is if June is down, say, 300 points by expiration from your entry point, yer out $16K+ cash in your account when you sell it. That 16K loss may bring you down to a point where you cannot then buy 11 MES contracts for December. Or Sept, whatever.

 

That's true. But I don't see it happening. And if it does, then my prediction was wrong so I lost money.