There is a significant enthusiasm gap among voters in regards to Biden. Enthusiasm drives turnout and turnout will be critical for Democrats in the 2024 General Election. It's not like Joe Biden can point to any major policy accomplishments. As I stated in the past his record is mixed -- IMO getting a letter grade of C+ at this point. Biden has had some failures (e.g. the Afghanistan withdrawal) and some successes. Even with the economy recovering, Biden is not getting much credit for it -- all Americans see is high interest rates, higher prices still on goods, job losses in tech & other sectors and a sense that recession is just around the corner. With Presidents and politicians when they get take office I give them so time to demonstrate results before assessing their performance. Whether it is Biden, Trump, Obama, etc. -- I take a look at their actions and policy success rate -- instead of listening to all the criticism automatically piled on by the other party. For example, Trump took a lot of criticism as the beginning of this time in office. Everything from Russian collusion to other claims -- these early claims appeared to have no backing in fact. For example, General Flynn (who admittedly is an idiot - seeing his recent spew) was convicted of lying to the FBI about his appointments with others, not of "Russian collusion". For over 200 years of American history, representatives of incoming administrations have met with foreign diplomats to hear their concerns before taking office. As long as nothing is promised to the foreign country in these meetings there is nothing illegal about them. In fact they are common. Note that Democrats did not criticize the Trump representatives for meeting with diplomats from any other country except for Russia. Likewise Biden took a bunch of Republican criticism when the took office. I waited to see how his policies and actions worked out before making any firms judgements. However at this point in the Biden administration, Joe is coming off like a doddering old grandfather with good intentions who surrounded himself with fairly decent people to prop him up. Due to his apparent "cognitive decline" (this may be unfair but it appears in how he comes across) Joe Biden comes across as a leader who is not all that strong. From a 2024 election perspective, Donald Trump comes across as a candidate who is a "strong leader". However Donald is a narcissist and wanna-be dictator. Unlike his first run for office, Trump is coming out now and stating very directly that he will be a fascist dictator. However he does have a following in the U.S. which enthusiastically endorses this. Trump's presidency had the first two years where he basically did nothing and drove no initiatives despite having a GOP Legislature. The only thing passed (driven by the legislature and not Trump) was tax cuts. The final two years of Trump's presidency had two fiascoes where he had an opportunity to demonstrate strong leadership and failed completely. These are the BLM riots and the Covid pandemic. Then at the end he topped this off with an attempted coup where Trump attempted to undermine democracy and have his brownshirts take over the the country by force. Sadly the choice in 2024, appears to be between the end of democracy with Trump or for a continuation of a so-so Democratic government under Biden. Unfortunately there are many people who will vote for Trump and there are red/purple states taking GOP measures to quash voting by Democrats in advance of the 2024 election. NBC panel of Democratic voters admit to be 'reluctantly' voting for Biden again https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...emocratic-voters-reluctantly-vote-biden-again
I think if Biden is running for President in 2024 against Trump... People in 2024 will remember or be reminded of the chaos under Trump as being unacceptable in comparison to Biden's lack of performance on what he promised although he did everything I voted for (e.g. remove Trump from the Oval Office, get vaccines to all Americans that want it, get us out of a Pandemic, respect our military & veterans, and the lack of respect by Republicans under Trump versus Republicans under a Democratic president)... Under Trump Native people face many barriers to voting, including state laws that can prohibit the use of tribal IDs, restrictions preventing people from using post office boxes to register (some parts of Indian reservations lack street addresses), a dearth of voting materials in Indigenous languages, long distances to polling places without transportation and much more. South Dakota and several other states were against "voting materials" in Indigenous languages for Indigenous Americans, moving polling places off the reservations to long distances to make voting more difficult...typically to a rural community. I have relatives who had their polling location moved from within 5 miles of their home to 60 miles away from their home. That's literally from a 5-minute drive to 60 minute drive to locations not too friendly to Native Americans. Some of those polling locations then group Native Americans into the "something else" category: White, Latino, Black, Something else, and Asian. Seriously, this is the United States of America and they list Native Americans as "something else" or "Other" on many voting registration forms...what the fuck. wrbtrader
The leader in RCPs aggregate polling a year before the election has won the popular vote in every election since 2008.
An incumbent President with a net double digit negative approval a year before the election has never won re election.
I saw something similar on another forum and article comment section today. In 2012 republicans couldn't accept that Obama was ahead of Romney in the polls and come up with the nonsense that the polls were rigged /skewed for democrats and when a poll showed Obama +3 or +4 points it really meant Romney +8 points,and they believed that shit. One of the most read and posted on thread in 2012 on ET was Jems poll thread where he used his invention of the "Jem Algo" to unskew the polls and post the real/Jem algo poll results.Of course most polls that showed Obama ahead the Jem algo said Romney was really ahead and Jem predicted a Romney win based on that nonsense,so did millions of other republicans. Now it seems in denial Biden supporters have come up with their own version of the skewed polls.
I prefer Vegas odd makers of +500 that Trump will be convicted and will serve time in prison. wrbtrader