Riddle me this (and other Fed questions)...

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, Jun 29, 2006.

  1. First, read this (all of ya)...

    "EUR/USD traded quietly in Europe with a little more life in the US on position adjustment. Central bank bids guarded the downside as ever while options-related offers helped cap rallies at 1.2565 early on. Most of the pre-fed session was spent between 1.2530 and 50 until the Fed dropped a bomb on the market by injecting a large note of uncertainty into the market in terms of its next move. After talking hawkishly in the run-up to the meeting, the market was shocked at the balanced tone in the FOMC statement. To sum it up: Bernanke lied; USD bulls died. Credibility could be a big issue for the USD heading forward as traders do not liked to be broadsided by central banks. Earlier this week respected investment banks were upping Fed funds forecasts to 6.0% and above. Now, less than a week later, they"re all saying the Fed is done at 5.25%. That won"t sit well with the street. 1.2680/85 stops and more above 1.2700 are eyed if the market choices to punish the Fed the way it did in May after a similar communications snafu."

    Now, I don't consider myself God's gift to forex. But how can someone be blindsided from the Fed? How can they state Bernarke lied about anything? Back when the market was saying the Fed was done at 5%, I've been saying all along there was one more hike in the pipeline. It wasn't until a week or two ago the market finally began to agree. The same market was SURE the ECB was going with a 50bps hike, while (read back) i was laughing at the notion. Sure enough, ECB came out with a neutral statement and a 25bps hike. Market was "blindsided".

    Now here we are and the market is supposedly "blindsided" again, this time, by a Fed that hike as they were predicted to do and then will indicate the need for a pause. Just like I said for weeks now. I'm too lazy to find the exact links - but some of it was in the EUR/USD thread.

    Why is it that an amateur like myself can see these CBs as clear as day, yet the "professional market" gets surprised? My answer - which is just a guess - is that the market feeds so much on sentiment that it loses it's mind based on emotional ...whatever, instead of going with the facts.

    Someone please explain to me. Because when I see this crap about credibility, I just snicker.
  2. Well, some people didn't get "blindsided."