Now Dubai is rolling out next week $$$ settled contract. Why do you think hfs and swfs have huge interests in the storage and delivery systems? http://www.dubaimerc.com/
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651 OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 05/20/08 | --------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS --------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------- Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 2,773,140 COMMITMENTS 290,513 163,999 803,070 1584582 1685217 2678166 2652286 94,975 120,854 CHANGES FROM 05/13/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -376,526) -1,861 11,101 -171,089 -202,132 -214,479 -375,082 -374,467 -1,444 -2,060 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER 10.5 5.9 29.0 57.1 60.8 96.6 95.6 3.4 4.4 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 373) 111 150 168 85 99 298 322 I think this is the one to excerpt from the report, buried at the bottom.
It appears that the Non-commercials are net long, and the Commercials are net short based upon the latest report for both light sweet and WTI . I am guessing non reportable positions means that these traders haven`t been classified as commercial/non commercial. OPEN INTEREST: 2,773,140 Commercials make up the bulk of the market. Non-commercial differentials tip the scale toward the long bias, and move the price up from this report`s timeframe. It appears from reading this report that the Non commercials determine price, whereas, the commercials are largely hedging existing price based upon my inexperienced reading of the report.
people forget that not only can one sell at delivery, but that for IB's and the like who do have storage at cushing and henry hub the trade has been to buy and hold the actual commodity. also there are oil otc trades etc
Crude is a pimped market just like the rest of them. It's been a fun ride up and I look forward to the more exciting ride down. What big name(s) will blow out as this myth gets busted?
Hopefully Goldman does. I would just sit back and laugh if they found themselves long oil when it collapses. Of course, the Federal Reserve would orchestrate a taxpayer-paid bail-out with trillions of pesos to cover the losses.
PABST AND 5YRTRADER got it right. here's my contribution to this thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127694&perpage=6&pagenumber=4
Whoever thinks hedge funds are trading out right futures is out of his or her mind. Hedge funds take spread positions. Hedge funds are not the problem and neither are speculators... the problem starts and ends with INDEX (long ) only commodity mutual funds that have no position limits. Supply and demand are also playing a large role.. look at todays CL price action... down 5 bucks or so.. why.. because there was a slack in demand at the pumps over this holiday weekend... DEMAND is the stronger hand here.. we aren't having any type of supply problems.. no gas lines no tanker shortages etc.. this is a demand story . index funds along with demand have pushed the price higher.. and whoever stated that ICE is not an arena for price discovery should be banished from ever sayign anythign on ths blog again.. ice and nymex are both price discovery platforms for many different products and spreads.. anyone who would like to prove me wrogn please attach a link or a file... you will be hard pressed to find something from a believable source.