% Market Source: https://www.theice.com/crude.jhtml WTI Contract Specs: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures/ICE_WTI_Crude_futures_Contract.pdf
I don't think so because I don't beleive this is true. Volume from May 27th NYMEX Crude oil 514,584 ICE Brent 262,963 ICE WTI 200,046 So check your information, remember the goal of this thread is to try and seperate the misinformation from the facts about crude. 5yr
Unless I am missing something, it appears that the ICE exchange plays a large role in manipulating price w/o the need of physical delivery-----So it looks like we have exploded another market myth!
Well, maybe that`s why price went down......lol, your right 5-yr....due diligence. So, do you add the 2 Ice contracts together? And what % of non physical delivery does it take to Move price over a 2-month, 3 month period given a certain bias? What % of the Nymex market is physically delivered each contract expiration, versus contracts rolled forward, and where do you get this data?
The futures set the spot price, more or less. NYMEX contracts can be easily rolled over, so it is more or less a paper market like the sif's. The output #'s are probably only reflecting 90% of what is out there, OPEC lowballs their output (it's been proven). If there was a 2 million bpd shortfall, we would have rationing, not building surpluses. I can say my dick is 2 feet long, but there is no proof Oil is going to correct. Goldman just said 200, so longs are about to get f*cked. T. Boone also lost his ass not long ago going short, so his word is not gospel either. All these 150, 200, 400 calls need to remind us all that when everyone is on the same side of the boat, it's going to take on water shortly :
http://members.cox.net/dmrc/CFTC_Reports_Energy_HO.htm http://www.commitmentoftraders.com/reports.htm http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/05/23/afx2048210.html http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanymesof.htm
There's no price discovery on ICE. NYMEX leads the world. I didn't hear Santelli's comments but rarely is Rick out of touch. Oil and commodity pricing has dominated ET (and Congress) lately. The dynamic is simple. Those who are long can either offset in futures or take delivery. Shorts can either cover in futures or make delivery. When the nearby options month in a commodity is spiking higher it's either due to a present shortage of deliverable product or the perception that deliveries will tighten in the near future. In other words a producer may have plenty of oil today but if he thinks a war or strike will impact his ability to deliver in August he'll lay off his sales now. Shorts in turn have had minimal deliverable selling to cover into. Just think of the market with an open interest of 1. The single long is a hedge fund who'll gladly take delivery of his June contract and if need be re-deliver later against a July short. Our example 1 lot short is a retail swing trader. The retail trader obviously can't make delivery. He needs to cover in futures. So he bids for 1 lot. No sellers. He bids higher. Still no sellers. You or me would like to hit him but we'd be in the same ultimate situation-short with no market to cover in. Finally our retail short pay's a price so high it induces a producer to sell a contract with intent to deliver. Producers would gladly check a market rise if they held excess reserves. That's how the market works, eh? And the House of Saud needs more than a volume of 1 when they're stuck in periods of diminished demand. This oil market has been different from the ag rallies. This wasn't all nearby driven. The backs are up huge too. There's been an absolute paradigm shift in the world's collective opinion about future oil valuations. Could be a top for all I know. The important thing to note is markets overshoot because of these temporary supply and demand disruptions. If markets didn't get stretched from what we estimate to be recognized value then we'd have zero trading opportunity.
The forbes is old news circa 2005, but it helps in understanding how to read these damn reports, telling me what to look for.
Sorry folks the first 3 commitment of traders reports are all old, the last one is the government report dated with a May 2008 time stamp at the bottom, and seems to be the latest and valid source