Richard Dennis along with 4 of his students appeared on stage for the first time Tuesday to talk "turtle trading. Dennis and Turtles Jerry Parker, Liz Cheval, Tom Shanks and Paul Rabar presented and took questions for over an hour. I know 'Marketsurfer' keeps talking of trend following not being viable, but these folks sure paint a different picture in their words and performance about trend following (they used the term extensively in their presentation). Dennis noted that they did 40 in person interviews and approx. 20 were hired. He felt that they would have had the same results with the other 20 not hired...saying that as he sat next to his 4 star pupils. It was a packed room.
There are plenty of people who will always argue that trend following doesn't work and that other trading tactics don't work. The reality is, we need those people to believe that in order to make money. The facts speak for themselves. Look at the numbers. Period.
there is no edge to trend following which is just another word for buy/sell and hold as proven by the huge drawdowns experienced by the major trend following funds. sure some people make money trend following, just like others make money with almost any method, its called surviorship bias,,,, you never hear from the ones who blow out prior to getting huge. the public is the ultimate trendfollower, always buying and or selling at the extremes, public is trend following by defaut, an edge can be quantified, trend following can not, proven by the simple example---- how many moves in one direction will increase the odds that the next move or series of same will be in the same direction? you simply can't do it, and thats the bottom line. surf
Marketsurfer spouts this shit because he worships Niederhoffer who doesnt believe in Trend Following.
Some recent video of trend follower Bill Dunn: <embed width="452" height="361" quality="high" bgcolor="#000000" name="main" id="main" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" src="http://www.popmodal.com/player/vPlayer.swf?f=http://www.popmodal.com/player/vConfig_embed.php?vkey=5390fbbadae65e07876a" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" />
Many of you know me as someone who 'fades' a market/trend. Here is the deal, we are ALL trend followers. Ok, maybe not 'followers' but if not following we surely want to be at the start of a trend. The difference between anyone is really the timing of the 'trend' For example when I short a stock that is running to the moon I am thinking that it will retrace which is another way of saying 'I think this stock at this point will trend downward' at which point I cover and make a few bucks. Why would anyone trade a stock if they didn't think it was going to 'trend' or go in the direction that they thought it would? I think whats important is the rules of entry as well as the rules of exit. It appeared to me that what makes the turtle theory work is that they had an edge and that was based on entry/exit. The fact that the average winners are large in relation to the average loser (or at least thats the plan) is very obvious but in fact secondary to the setup and exit IMHO. I do think it would have been enjoyable to listen to Mr. Dennis and the turtles talk about their experiences.
was "trendfollowing" aka michael covel there to show the best returns with no drawdowns are selling trend following books to others? ... he has the best sharpe/sortini/no drawdown returns eva when it comes to trend following, sell info on/about it
seems like you manifest a misunderstanding of trend following and surviorship bias. selling premium long enough to attract other capital before you blow up is an strong example of surviorship bias at work. knowing that markets sometimes trend and spreading your capital out over markets you think might have a shot at trending - while using a disciplined set of money management rules is beginning to look like a professional trading program. that is not buying an holding.
Hi Michael, Where did they speak at in Chicago? I did not see any mention of this anywhere. I can't believe I did not hear about it.
They appeared at the Managed Funds Association's conference at the Fairmont Hotel. I found it odd that it was not promoted much too, but then again the MFA was charging $2000 to attend the several day conference. For example, right after the Turtle/Dennis panel <a href="http://www.wintoncapital.com">David Harding</a> gave a keynote address.