That is the whole joke - using stats is technical analysis. Quants are getting paid to do T/A without the pretty pictures. I looked at graphs - he looks at print outs. I might have a twenty period moving average of the s&pS daily range with a bollinger band around it. I could say hey look in 2002 the bands were hit 8 times. Then I could put my pointer on those days and look at the 5 minute chart for those days. Then I could do one better than vic and look for support. I could then set a stop behind support and avoid blowing up. Stats are T/A.
TA is very narrow, akin to an Xray of price. the work VN is involved in takes into consideration many more factors in decision making. Noted TA developer/expert John Bollinger and many TA users our members of our group along with TA skeptics, attached please find an insightful article from my friend Dr. Phil Mcdonnell regarding Bollinger/ TA and the differences between TA/stats/counting methods. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=2158 enjoy, surf
studies indicate that your stop will also "stop you out" from outsized gains and can actually be detrimental over the long haul. may i suggest-- http://www.amazon.com/Optimal-Portf...bs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1195856051&sr=8-1 pick your poison. surf
This is all laughable. I know a PM and his traders who've collectively not had a losing month in NINE YEARS. and only 17 losing weeks. And guess what? They base their trading on T/A model. Records speak for themselves. Stop generalizing the populace into a cesspool of mediocrity. Maybe, some are just better than you are at that game. Deal with it.
All of your cynicism basically analagous to the following: "Most people who use titanium drivers fail to make the PGA". "Most people who shoot basketballs fail to make the NBA." uh, NO SHIT!!!
surf come now - I know you have sworn off t/a but you can't swear off price action and price support. Even the fed found statistical evidence of price support in the currency markets. They did a big study and found trades bouncing of round numbers when the currency were quoted in the traditional manner but not when the quotes were reversed. I provided links to the study on this cite in the past. I am not going to give away much more but I will say when I learned what vic considers counting - I had to laugh. vn is a reversion to the mean trader with balls and experience. He markets his fund by spouting a bunch re packaged t/a and calling it almost scientific. Every once in a while his balls blow up.
the TA cynicism is based on testing. not anecdotal evidence as you present. It seems everyone knows someone who does this or that, however the numbers don't bare it out. yeah, there are edges to be exploited, obviously your PM example has found one or more. surf
He is just not good at it. Whatever Marketsurfer is not good at = Defunct law. He argues this to people who are good at it. People reply and call him a self-absorbant fool. Repeat 10,000 posts later.
your totally misunderstanding, some of my best friends are TA true believers. TA can be used in a subjective/artistic way, i have no issue with this. people can develop intuitive abilities to read charts it seems. however, it's not objective and can't be quantified. surf
Bell Curve, yawn.. Hey I thought you were into Taleb and black swan theory. Asians score much higher on the IQ tests than Caucasians or any other race. I do know alot of dumb asians tho. "Testing" of the mediocre, the average. Outliers and fat tails are generally rejected in your area. This is the agenda for the 21st century, NWO, etc.. The PM has documented/audited returns that date back a decade. Their existence makes them real, no matter what your bell curve says.