Rewind Back 15 Years

padutrader · May 26, 2019

nooby_mcnoob said:
Sure, qualified in that I actually make money investing and trading. Haven't yet conquered forex, will do so eventually.
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I do not care if you are the best trader in the world you are talking about my mental health are you qualified to talk about that.

padutrader · May 26, 2019

volpri said:
I treat this PA as a range tilted into a bear channel. Is it broad enough to trade short and long? That depends on my min target objective. I want the channel to be in width at least 3 or 4 times my min profit object. Better, if more. If more, then can be trade both ways. If 3x then best to ONLY short the channel. That is the safer bet.

However, it MUST be remembered that this is a bear channel. Bear channels function as bull flags. The forthcoming BO (sooner or later) 70% odds will be to the upside. So...I need a tactic to deal with any ensuing bull BO of the channel that becomes a successful BO.

On the other hand there is a 75% chance that any BO of top or bottom of the channel WILL fail and price will go right back into the channel. So...any BO doesn’t mean it is a successful BO. I will know one when I see one. PB’s will stay above or below the channel and there will be other signs of strenght or weakness. So...if I get caught on the wrong side on a BO what do I do? Well I have to exit my position. Double or triple up and go with the BO direction. And keep adding as long as it stays above the BO point (top of the channel in a bull BO and the bottom of the channel in a bear BO).

Now another tidbit on odds. This is a bear channel. Likely resolution is a bull BO as mentioned above 70%. Now what do I do if instead it breaks out south of the channel with a SUCCESSFUL (see above for def of successful BO). In that case, the least likely event has happened. The 30% event. So I rub my hands with glee short the market and look for a measured move down starting from the BO point (bottom of the channel and my entry point) and if strong may also use the top of the channel to my entry point and measure down that much further for my initial PT.

But as long as price stay in the channel I am scalping as first mentioned above. That is, taking a short position in the middle third and adding to my position in the top third and even adding on a BO that is likely to fail (75% chance) then exiting in middle third or preferably the bottom third. If exiting in middle third I break even on my first entries and make money on my added entries that were added in the top third. I keep in mind too that the longer a channel has been a channel and the more BO attempts it has then the odds of the next BO succeeding go up. And the odds of the next BO failing go down. So, this also affects my decision to add onto a say short position in a BO north or long position in a BO south.

Playing the odds of price patterns in view of the larger context.

There are many more tactical plays in this channel. Why? Because there are trends within it.There are micro channels within it. There are exhaustion bars within it. There are wedge tops and bottoms within it. There are reversals within it. There are triangles within it. There are mini flags within it...on and on...may even be some nested patterns within it. Just don’t feel like looking for them..LOL

Good luck.

PS please print out Padu’s beautiful chart here with my wonderful annotations and comments and put in a very visible place so as to learn the concepts embedded within. You just might find it to be useful for trading on a sim ROFLMAO. Have fun.

View attachment 203128
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thank you I do not remember why I took that some other idea that triggered must have been something.
I am continuing to trade live because I am researching another method to trade....I am not posting my trades because they confusing people......

what you put there was basic stuff which I have traded for years....

I do not like to say in public how much money I make...it is very bad karma in India to do so...
thank you for your kindness to post this ...that is good karma

padutrader · May 26, 2019

volpri said:
I treat this PA as a range tilted into a bear channel. Is it broad enough to trade short and long? That depends on my min target objective. I want the channel to be in width at least 3 or 4 times my min profit object. Better, if more. If more, then can be trade both ways. If 3x then best to ONLY short the channel. That is the safer bet.

However, it MUST be remembered that this is a bear channel. Bear channels function as bull flags. The forthcoming BO (sooner or later) 70% odds will be to the upside. So...I need a tactic to deal with any ensuing bull BO of the channel that becomes a successful BO.

On the other hand there is a 75% chance that any BO of top or bottom of the channel WILL fail and price will go right back into the channel. So...any BO doesn’t mean it is a successful BO. I will know one when I see one. PB’s will stay above or below the channel and there will be other signs of strenght or weakness. So...if I get caught on the wrong side on a BO what do I do? Well I have to exit my position. Double or triple up and go with the BO direction. And keep adding as long as it stays above the BO point (top of the channel in a bull BO and the bottom of the channel in a bear BO).

Now another tidbit on odds. This is a bear channel. Likely resolution is a bull BO as mentioned above 70%. Now what do I do if instead it breaks out south of the channel with a SUCCESSFUL (see above for def of successful BO). In that case, the least likely event has happened. The 30% event. So I rub my hands with glee short the market and look for a measured move down starting from the BO point (bottom of the channel and my entry point) and if strong may also use the top of the channel to my entry point and measure down that much further for my initial PT.

But as long as price stay in the channel I am scalping as first mentioned above. That is, taking a short position in the middle third and adding to my position in the top third and even adding on a BO that is likely to fail (75% chance) then exiting in middle third or preferably the bottom third. If exiting in middle third I break even on my first entries and make money on my added entries that were added in the top third. I keep in mind too that the longer a channel has been a channel and the more BO attempts it has then the odds of the next BO succeeding go up. And the odds of the next BO failing go down. So, this also affects my decision to add onto a say short position in a BO north or long position in a BO south.

Playing the odds of price patterns in view of the larger context.

There are many more tactical plays in this channel. Why? Because there are trends within it.There are micro channels within it. There are exhaustion bars within it. There are wedge tops and bottoms within it. There are reversals within it. There are triangles within it. There are mini flags within it...on and on...may even be some nested patterns within it. Just don’t feel like looking for them..LOL

Good luck.

PS please print out Padu’s beautiful chart here with my wonderful annotations and comments and put in a very visible place so as to learn the concepts embedded within. You just might find it to be useful for trading on a sim ROFLMAO. Have fun.

View attachment 203128
More...

there is always another view....in the market....this for a buy
see the yellow trend line: a break of the trend line and a swing high, a retest of the trend line

padutrader · May 26, 2019

volpri said:
I treat this PA as a range tilted into a bear channel. Is it broad enough to trade short and long? That depends on my min target objective. I want the channel to be in width at least 3 or 4 times my min profit object. Better, if more. If more, then can be trade both ways. If 3x then best to ONLY short the channel. That is the safer bet.

However, it MUST be remembered that this is a bear channel. Bear channels function as bull flags. The forthcoming BO (sooner or later) 70% odds will be to the upside. So...I need a tactic to deal with any ensuing bull BO of the channel that becomes a successful BO.

On the other hand there is a 75% chance that any BO of top or bottom of the channel WILL fail and price will go right back into the channel. So...any BO doesn’t mean it is a successful BO. I will know one when I see one. PB’s will stay above or below the channel and there will be other signs of strenght or weakness. So...if I get caught on the wrong side on a BO what do I do? Well I have to exit my position. Double or triple up and go with the BO direction. And keep adding as long as it stays above the BO point (top of the channel in a bull BO and the bottom of the channel in a bear BO).

Now another tidbit on odds. This is a bear channel. Likely resolution is a bull BO as mentioned above 70%. Now what do I do if instead it breaks out south of the channel with a SUCCESSFUL (see above for def of successful BO). In that case, the least likely event has happened. The 30% event. So I rub my hands with glee short the market and look for a measured move down starting from the BO point (bottom of the channel and my entry point) and if strong may also use the top of the channel to my entry point and measure down that much further for my initial PT.

But as long as price stay in the channel I am scalping as first mentioned above. That is, taking a short position in the middle third and adding to my position in the top third and even adding on a BO that is likely to fail (75% chance) then exiting in middle third or preferably the bottom third. If exiting in middle third I break even on my first entries and make money on my added entries that were added in the top third. I keep in mind too that the longer a channel has been a channel and the more BO attempts it has then the odds of the next BO succeeding go up. And the odds of the next BO failing go down. So, this also affects my decision to add onto a say short position in a BO north or long position in a BO south.

Playing the odds of price patterns in view of the larger context.

There are many more tactical plays in this channel. Why? Because there are trends within it.There are micro channels within it. There are exhaustion bars within it. There are wedge tops and bottoms within it. There are reversals within it. There are triangles within it. There are mini flags within it...on and on...may even be some nested patterns within it. Just don’t feel like looking for them..LOL

Good luck.

PS please print out Padu’s beautiful chart here with my wonderful annotations and comments and put in a very visible place so as to learn the concepts embedded within. You just might find it to be useful for trading on a sim ROFLMAO. Have fun.

View attachment 203128
More...

I am not sure whether you are agreeing with me on the short or not....but also posted another view of the same price action

padutrader · May 26, 2019

volpri said:
I treat this PA as a range tilted into a bear channel. Is it broad enough to trade short and long? That depends on my min target objective. I want the channel to be in width at least 3 or 4 times my min profit object. Better, if more. If more, then can be trade both ways. If 3x then best to ONLY short the channel. That is the safer bet.

However, it MUST be remembered that this is a bear channel. Bear channels function as bull flags. The forthcoming BO (sooner or later) 70% odds will be to the upside. So...I need a tactic to deal with any ensuing bull BO of the channel that becomes a successful BO.

On the other hand there is a 75% chance that any BO of top or bottom of the channel WILL fail and price will go right back into the channel. So...any BO doesn’t mean it is a successful BO. I will know one when I see one. PB’s will stay above or below the channel and there will be other signs of strenght or weakness. So...if I get caught on the wrong side on a BO what do I do? Well I have to exit my position. Double or triple up and go with the BO direction. And keep adding as long as it stays above the BO point (top of the channel in a bull BO and the bottom of the channel in a bear BO).

Now another tidbit on odds. This is a bear channel. Likely resolution is a bull BO as mentioned above 70%. Now what do I do if instead it breaks out south of the channel with a SUCCESSFUL (see above for def of successful BO). In that case, the least likely event has happened. The 30% event. So I rub my hands with glee short the market and look for a measured move down starting from the BO point (bottom of the channel and my entry point) and if strong may also use the top of the channel to my entry point and measure down that much further for my initial PT.

But as long as price stay in the channel I am scalping as first mentioned above. That is, taking a short position in the middle third and adding to my position in the top third and even adding on a BO that is likely to fail (75% chance) then exiting in middle third or preferably the bottom third. If exiting in middle third I break even on my first entries and make money on my added entries that were added in the top third. I keep in mind too that the longer a channel has been a channel and the more BO attempts it has then the odds of the next BO succeeding go up. And the odds of the next BO failing go down. So, this also affects my decision to add onto a say short position in a BO north or long position in a BO south.

Playing the odds of price patterns in view of the larger context.

There are many more tactical plays in this channel. Why? Because there are trends within it.There are micro channels within it. There are exhaustion bars within it. There are wedge tops and bottoms within it. There are reversals within it. There are triangles within it. There are mini flags within it...on and on...may even be some nested patterns within it. Just don’t feel like looking for them..LOL

Good luck.

PS please print out Padu’s beautiful chart here with my wonderful annotations and comments and put in a very visible place so as to learn the concepts embedded within. You just might find it to be useful for trading on a sim ROFLMAO. Have fun.

View attachment 203128
More...

the yellow trendline was the correct trend line...and the buy was the correct trade....the last fall in the channel was climactic.

SimpleMeLike · May 26, 2019

padutrader said:
made a mistake trading the reversal bar

that was an emotional action / entry

must remember a single bar reversal is not trust worthy- how ever good it looks...unless it is after a blow off
but even then the market will test that single bar so trade with extreme caution

but it was a trade.. with trend....may have made me over confident
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padutrader,

Correct, this was a mistake entry. Add this mistake money loss in the mistake money loss column. Even though trend was down, and you was selling at resitance level, you still have to wait. Also notice the reversal doji bar, did not even make it mid way downwards pass the previous big buy bar

SimpleMeLike · May 26, 2019

padutrader said:
made a mistake trading the reversal bar

that was an emotional action / entry

must remember a single bar reversal is not trust worthy- how ever good it looks...unless it is after a blow off
but even then the market will test that single bar so trade with extreme caution

but it was a trade.. with trend....may have made me over confident

must tighten up with trend entries too
More...

padutrader,

I am very curious to know why you not enter short at any of the 5 blue arrows?

These are some short momuntem breakout trades with trend. And some reversal short trades with trend.

I have this note written down next to me when I trade and it says " I have a good or high probability of making money when I am trading with the trend. I can not have self doubt or hesitiation when I am trading with the trend. Pick a logical place to trade with the trend." Clearly the trend is down.

padutrader · May 26, 2019

SimpleMeLike said:
padutrader,

I am very curious to know why you not enter short at any of the 5 blue arrows?

These are some short momuntem breakout trades with trend. And some reversal short trades with trend.

I have this note written down next to me when I trade and it says " I have a good or high probability of making money when I am trading with the trend. I can not have self doubt or hesitiation when I am trading with the trend. Pick a logical place to trade with the trend." Clearly the trend is down.

View attachment 203151
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the lowest blue arrow was a buy not a sell.....

see posts 703 and 705 this thread

I may have been in a different pair....do not remember...it was almost 20 days ago

but always be wary of the obvious...when the trend is obviously down...the market does not give easy money

volpri · May 26, 2019

I see Padu posted subsequent charts about the trade. Here are some more comments. Will make more later.

SimpleMeLike · May 26, 2019

padutrader said:
the lowest blue arrow was a buy not a sell.....

see posts 703 and 705 this thread

I may have been in a different pair....do not remember...it was almost 20 days ago

but always be wary of the obvious...when the trend is obviously down...the market does not give easy money
More...

padutrader,

Are you referring to the blue arrow I am pointing to in white? If so , that is a clear sell, not buy. That is a momtuemn sell . If I see that I am selling 100% of time because the trend is down, why should I do anything else different? Yes for this case, i would have taken a loss maybe (I don't know what happen later), but I just take the loss.