Review my newest EUR/USD system

Discussion in 'Forex' started by elabunsky, Jul 26, 2010.

  1. Let me present some part of my current trading system (it's not comple).

    From 1999 till 2010 years system made 36283 trades,
    Win/Loss ratio: 3,48
    Win probability: 38%

    Screenshot enclosed.

    Full report:

    It'll available as GrayBox soon.

  2. This most likely isn't your first county fair, but how much do you trust metatrader for backtesting? I found it very flawed, but only briefly got into it then gave it up.
  3. I have tested this system inside my own system tester and Ninja. But MetaTrader have biggest history quotes deep and very popular.

    PS. I'll allow trader set they position limit. For example, 30 lots and basic entry 0.1 and equity will be the same as for original system.

    PPS. I'm not using reinvesting.
  4. What is your annualized volatility?
  5. I'm not sure that I can understand you.
    I'm focused on trades amount, win/loss ratio and win probability.
    From this point of view I have nice system.

  6. What?

    Have you ever licensed or sold/traded a system with another entity? Usually one prerequisite would have to be the Annualized Volatility of gains. Is this your first time?

    Your hypothesis (or POV) is lacking a few things. If you are looking for constructive criticism you will need a few more statistics before getting too excited about anything.

    Monthly return 1)Skewness and 2)Kurtosis - annualized Sharpe and Sortino ratios. This would include Annualized Volatility of course.

    Things like payoff (payout) ratio are useless IMO. I think you still have some things to think about / calculate, good luck on your journey.

    I have been where you have before, so if you want a truthful review you need to do some more work my friend. There is most likely some other things that are not coming to my mind so if I can think of them before someone else does I will let you know.
  7. Please, let me explain why I'm focused on Win/Loss ratio and Win Prob. values.

    I have developed some trading system during long time and found that system with low trades have perfect quality values, but not works real life. Visit my web site, please (TrendMedium is not loss at least, but it's not ready for big capital still).

    But if you system have a lot of trades you can forget about another values and concentrated only on two values - Win/Loss ratio and Win Prob.

    Another systems values are useless in this case. If you have a lot of trades, good win/loss and win prob - system is stable already and another quality values is only additional info in report.

    Analyze of the Win/Loss ratio and Win Prob. values for system generated a lot of trades can give guaranty of the system stability.

    Please, give me any system backtested during 10 years, generated more than 30 000 trades with similar Win/Loss ratio and Win Prob. values.


    PS. I have not trader's licence and I do not like be a trader, but I found good way for get stable system - it's more better that focused on small details.
  8. Cool man, all I am saying is if you want to sniff real institutional money you will not go far without these things.

    I promise.

  9. Thank you for notice, but I'm not looking real institutional money now... I'm on start stage still. BTW TradeStation gives all these quality values that you requested? I can do TradeStation system also.

    #10     Jul 26, 2010