Reversion to the Mean

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by secxces, Sep 19, 2006.

  1. IVT,

    I assume you are saying that crossovers are of no value. Something that shows vols at say a high or low percentile would be more reliable to trade off of?

     
    #51     Sep 24, 2006
  2. my "out".....is that the same term pro's and most novices use when they exit....called "the exit"????? just curious..
     
    #52     Sep 24, 2006
  3. not really. Since 2001 stocks slowly drifted from upper percentiles to lowest , second or third. Where would be your entry point to go long on vols ? At fifth , third ? You would of lose a lot of money. Even the lowest percentile is not safe , because any entity can build a lower lows.
    Also , would you short the "inflated"/of the chart vols one day before FDA hearings ?

    Its all case by case
     
    #53     Sep 24, 2006
  4. jem

    jem


    Federal Reserve Paper finding support resistance to be real in the currency markets.


    http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache...pport+and+resistance&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=8

    And while I was making hundreds of thousands of dollars,and hundreds of precent returns per year in up and down markets -- trading stocks against a moving average while comparing them to the s&PS in relation to that same moving average, I thought I was doing technical analysis.

    Later, when academia got involved in the field and brought some legitmacy to it, I learned what i was really doing was "arbing" or looking for mispricings.
     
    #54     Sep 25, 2006
  5. Bsulli

    Bsulli

    for a printable verison of Jem's link.
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/00v06n2/0007osle.pdf

    Ineresting read, thanks.

    Bsulli
     
    #55     Sep 25, 2006
  6. Joab

    Joab

    There is never a good excuse to be mean !:D :D :D

    Look up band trading, Bollinger has some good works on the subject.
     
    #56     Sep 25, 2006
  7. jem

    jem

    Yea I saw what I wrote was kind of harsh.
    By the way, I think I do have a bit of chip. Because I believed my Econ professors when the taught the emh and said it stood for the fact that no one could make money in the markets. (mid 80s belief) So instead of going to work for some of the hedge fund guys in Greenwich to whom I taught tennis. , I went to law school. Which I suspect cost me a lot of time an money.
     
    #57     Sep 25, 2006
  8. Charly

    Charly


    HI VST
    thats the style I like.
    Can I get the formula somewhere I would have to try to adapt it my software since I don't have/use TradeStation.

    Charly
     
    #58     Oct 4, 2006
  9. Charly

    Charly

    #59     Oct 4, 2006