I hope you are not trading vols based on the 100/10 crossovers. Are you sure that a lot of traders using this strategy ?
This is interesting, I have approached this in the past when testing different breakout strategies. What type of volitality are you refering to? (what software? chaikin? tradestation? etc) Why would you hope? Im curious, I have never used that strategy, but It sounds like your warning against it? Just Curious, But thanks for the info. ------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks Again All, - secXces
Yes and no. Some elements of "techical analysis" may approximate the methodologies used in quantitative analysis... The problem is... That the field of TA is polluted with countless, unfounded beliefs like "pattern repetition", "resistance levels", on and on... All jacked up by Insatiable Greed and Industry Propaganda. In 2006... every aspect of TA can be rigorously backtested by a talented 16 year old and debunked... But no one ever bothers... everything is an article of faith. After having met 100s of amateur traders... I believe that TA is like crack. Someone indoctrinated into the "easy money" of TA... can NEVER be deprogrammed. (There is no such thing as easy money). Quants only use charts to get a good overview of the situation... Meaning "chart patterns" are NEVER a basis for a trading decision. The mathematical techniques used by Quants to find mispriced securities... Cannot be approximated by "looking at charts." Also... the ** actual definition ** of "data mining"... Is to use statistically fallacious techiques to scan mountains of data... And pull out worthless, random patterns that do not continue into the future. It is a brilliant con by the Securities Industry to actually re-invent "data mining"... As a way for a noob to take money away from experienced pro traders. Basically... Any Doctoral Stats level expert would dismiss 90% of TA out of hand in 60 seconds... And not bother to argue with someone who's dog was kidnapped by aliens. Hope I addressed a few of you points...
Thank you for your thoughtful response. This is exactly what I mean... TA junkies are blindly driven my greed and greed and greed. Dreams of easy money by buying off-the-shelf books and software... Is the hallmark of a Loser. And for the adults among us... Here is a very good analysis of the Hedge Fund universe... And the variety of groups and strategy types within: http://www.vanguard.com.au/library/pdf/RL_Hedge_Fund_Evaluation_P01 05.pdf Note: Please try a search. The phrase "technical analysis" does appear in the document... Because it is the preserve of desperate noobs and degenerate gamblers... Not world class money managers.
Nearly 26 years of success put me in a good positon to say False Ridiculous Believe me TA is extremely valuable. My work is done in this thread.
b1s2, is correct...hi b1s2........the fact is most everything that occurs emini's will be seen over and over and over ad nauseum....if you look at enough stuff long enough..........ta or whatever u construe it to be or wish to call it is simply is fact that there are limited # of events that occur and re-occur.......limited... that is to say that there are so many pictures the chart can produce resulting from price action obviously.....not you and not me.......that is, we are teenie fish in the school......not the big fish...everyday the chart will end the day looking like a previous chart.....some previous chart....everyday is deja vous all over again. Patterns such as shaven heads, hammers, trend, all become repetitive pictures wit h similar results....but not if we change our appraoch every day as we try to curve fit system and find the chart for the day.....like trying to find the end of a circle......
The phrase "technical analysis" does appear in the document... Because it is the preserve of desperate noobs and degenerate gamblers... Not world class money managers. That may be the case but http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...erpage=6&highlight=beach capital&pagenumber=3 This link convinces me that you are poorly informed. It gave me a very definate exit point to every trade that wasnt just based on how much i could afford to lose (and discovering that my out was at the reversal point).