Reverse engineering why indicators don't work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by IronFist, Nov 27, 2017.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    Do you have an alternative?
     
    #51     Nov 30, 2017
  2. themickey

    themickey

    Price behaviour.
    Sometimes its pertinent to know how price is behaving on a rising trend rather than falling trend.
    Doesn't work obviously in chop or speculative stocks jumping around.
    One may wish to find stocks with long historical trend legs...
    One may wish to use in in terms of volatility.
     
    #52     Nov 30, 2017
  3. lcranston

    lcranston

    Depends on what one means by "work". Knowing and understanding how price behaves in a range -- what some call "chop" -- works to alert the price trader to know that he's going to have to decide whether to attempt to trade this range, and how, or back away from it until traders move out of it and price begins trending again. I find nearly every day that while many traders are taking small loss after small loss, I'm waiting. As for the jumping around in speculative stocks, that is also worth knowing, and the price trader will most likely stay away if the participants appear to be throwing darts in the dark.

    In any case, it isn't necessary to mathematically calculate anything to know how price is behaving on a rising trend rather than a falling trend; just draw a line.
     
    #53     Nov 30, 2017
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Some algos require a calculation on trends.
    Try calculating a rising trend line in an algo and get back to us on that.
     
    #54     Nov 30, 2017
  5. lcranston

    lcranston

    True. But not everyone is interested in trading with algos.

    Trading price -- or trading without indicators -- requires a certain way of thinking. As does scalping. Or mechanical trading. Or any kind of absentee trading. When one who sees no need for indicators attempts a discussion with one who can't live without them, any sort of information exchange will be limited.
     
    #55     Nov 30, 2017
  6. tomorton

    tomorton


    To quantify it against other trends, to select the best?
     
    #56     Nov 30, 2017
  7. lcranston

    lcranston

    Depends on how one defines "best". An MA tells the trader nothing about whether or not price is trending; it tells the trader whether or not price has been trending. And that makes a great deal of difference with regard to what the trader is to do next. And trading is all about what the trader is to do next.

    MAs follow price movement. The price trader does the same thing. But the price trader -- generally -- has a brain. The MA does not. Therefore the price trader can reach a decision based on what price is doing in real time, not guess based on what price has done.
     
    #57     Nov 30, 2017
    lovethetrade likes this.
  8. bone

    bone

    I personally know of a quantitative Hedge Fund in Silicon Valley that in part does precisely that - they mathematically quantify and model for price action trend characteristics. Safe to say that they are not the only ones. You have to keep in mind that each market participant has a their own trade holding duration approach. Scalpers deal in seconds or minutes, others in hours days months even years.
     
    #58     Nov 30, 2017
  9. lcranston

    lcranston

    True, as I pointed out earlier. But, again, the quantification tells one only what price has done, not what it's doing, much less what it's going to do. Which takes us back to my previous post, and post #1.
     
    #59     Nov 30, 2017
  10. Yep!

    If a trader can make money using indicators, more power to him.
    But I look at indicators as being the pulse, and the PA as being the heart. And I'd go with the doctor who listened to my heart, rather than the one who just felt my pulse!

    And why does one need a buffer? But then again, if the trader can't read the price movement, I guess indicators are what he must depend on.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2017
    #60     Nov 30, 2017