Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jesse J., Apr 22, 2003.
husky-- please read my initial post to begin this thread. That's my basis, the earnings are coming in good, the war was a slam dunk, and the charts and stochastics are pointing upward.
formation similar to that of 1990-1991 if folks can remember back to that.
the momentum is building, and too many "wise guy" shorts need to be squeeezed.
pop! we're at 950.
OK... a fine call deserves recognition. So, Jesse, FINE CALL!!
A bit of advice though; quit while you are ahead. There is no upside. Look what that idiot Nolan did when he was right. Made himself into a Guru. Had his moment in the sun, and wore himself out patting himself on the back. And I don't know if you were around when Lundy was calling a bottom to the market. He took more abuse than anyone should be subjected to. There is nothing wrong with being wrong. We all are wrong a high percentage of the time (if we are honest with ourselves and others). No reason to set yourself up for criticism for being human. (In Lundy's case, maybe he deserved it.....I didn't think so at the time, but more recently he showed what he is made of, and THAT was when I lost all respect for him).
You had good reasoning for your call, and it was bold and accurate. But like I said, there is no upside. Once you start drawing attention to yourself, even if you are right 90% of the time (and nobody is), you will get more grief for the 10% you call it wrong than you will get accolades for the 90% you are right combined.
If you want to stay in the spotlight, that is your call. I would suggest though, if you want to stay on the record, but not have the spotlight shining directly on you and giving you an undesirable high profile, just keep a journal. If you are right more than wrong, you will get a following, and a lot of respect. If you make spot predictions, as you did today, you will never be good enough for those that want you to fail. And for whatever unexplainable reasons, there ARE indeed too many that do want you to fail. (Misery loves company? Doesn't matter what the reason is).
Be smart. Don't draw attention. Even more importantly, try not to crave it. It isn't worth it. Making money should be your reward. Not adulation. Plus, you will get a lot more respect if you keep a journal and show you are better than average.....which is all it takes.
Congradulations, and keep up the good work. And don't let yourself get painted into a corner. And certainly don't do it to yourself.
Again, great call. Wish I had capitalized on it. Couldn't trade today, (medical reasons) but I will admit I thought this morning looked too dull to really get involved heavily one way or the other. So I would have been wrong even if I had gotten long. Because I would not have gotten heavy. Missed opportunities, however, never bother me. Tomorrow is always another potential good (or bad) day. It is a never ending game.
i wouldn't call a 80 billion dollar price tag on the war a "slam dunk" volatility indicators are at yearly lows and once a sentiment of "fear" hits we could be in for a real crash. earning est. have been targeted pretty low so they haven't been real difficult to beat. unemployment and housing rates are still miserable. bush and crew still have a lot of political issues to tackle post-iraq. and lastly not sure what indicators you are using, but mine are showing the short term as overbought.
i'm not saying youre wrong, and i hear your arguments and we have to break out of this bear market at some point...but i just dont see the market outlook as pretty as you seem to paint it. next few weeks should be interesting
good trading to ya and nice call this morning
your rationale is exactly the type of bearish sentiment that needs to be squeezed out.
remember, 950 on the S&P is very far from the 1500+ high in 2000.
So all I'm saying is 950, that's not so rosy, just a spike upward to knock out the wise guy shorts.
"i wouldn't call a 80 billion dollar price tag on the war a "slam dunk" volatility indicators are at yearly lows and once a sentiment of "fear" hits we could be in for a real crash. "
the problem is how do we recreate that fear. we just came through a war and so called recession and many bankrupt companys blowing up. in order to have a crash that will make new lows we need to have conditions worse than we just came through because the market has already discounted that.sure we could have a terrorist attack in this country but that is a long shot imho.
so i can be a guru if i call the market right one day?
post a prediction BEFORE the market opens,
and we'll see your aptitude.
it would be easy to see one last quick breakdown, say dow t0 7400, before the turn around into a, albeit moderate, bull market
You got it right for now, don't press your luck.
JC; amazing that people still get impressed by their own stuff.
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