From a daytraders perspective, it's not as simple as you make it out to be. Friday price oscillation with size was met by opposing size. I bet lot of systems lost money yesterday with the multitude of false signals that were generated throughout the day. That's not even counting the last 15 minute whiplash.
Nitro If that isn't market manipulation at its finest I don't know what is. I was sooooooooooo mad but I had to cover too as I didn't want to take the weekend heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I only have one thing to say!!!!!!!!!!! MANIPULATION
You're right on all fronts. IMO very clever distribution taking place into these sudden spikes. Bottom line is the market has a bunch of very nervous shorts who are willing to cover on any two consecutive up ticks. This is an example of how both price and time can conspire at an inflection point.
For the folks who post comments like "no you can't be right" or "I did that and it didn't work", or "its not that simple". I suggest you ignore my posts. Obviously I can't help you. Good luck though. For those who may have "got a clue", the next step would be to ask yourself, which indicator(s) would act as the analogue of "putting an ear to the tracks"? As you get closer to the end of the day, would you use the same indicator, or would you change (as the train gets closer, do you keep your ear to the track and get "run over" or do you pull your head off the track and use your eyes and ears?). Mhashe: Since I am waiting for the last hour to trade, I often make money during that last 15 minutes. Sorry you guys are having problems. and again I have not said it was simple. but then I appreciate the difficulties you are having. Steve
While I do believe that there may be times during the day where "markets" may be manipulated on some minute scale, imo 99.999% of these fast moves up/down are pure and simple: There was lots of buying in this case that caused a short covering panic adding fuel to the fire. You have to understand what I posted and perhaps there is some misunderstanding because as posted it is somewhat cryptic, but let me clarify. It was not the loss that I was mad at, because the position had a hedge that "should" have worked in a big NQ move against me but didn't. In fact, I had several positions on contigously with the NQ position and I looked away from the spooz tape for maybe forty five seconds to manage my stocks positions, and by the time I looked back the buying was ferocious (meanwhile my stock positions, whom should have moved with the SIF buying, did nothing) and I had to right myself and consider the situation - it was simply too late to do anything about it and at that point I was just in damage control mode. All this I understand because that is part of trading and I live with those errors every day. What totally blew my mind was how the NQ was holding against all PBs in ES and YM, and then when the cash closed, and I mean within seconds, the NQ just plumetted with ES and YM not even budging. Now I have seen that happened before too!!!! The cash closing often causes bizzarre aberrations. In fact, in my systemic trading I exit 2 seconds before the cash closes no matter what. So you might ask given that I had seen and even experienced all these things, what was so strange and what gives me the right to be angry - is it just the loss? A good trader realizes when he has gotten lucky and when he just got taken by more informed traders. This was a situation where I felt that I was simply outraded because both ES and YM didn't move more than a half a handle in the same time, and [therefore] it was some news specific to NQ or some weird aberration that I simply missed! I am still researching what it is I missed. Some suggested DELL earnings, but I am nearly certain that was the second four handles down, not the first. On another thread, jim_c, a fellow Chicagoan who is responsible for hedging CBOE option MMs order flow and whose word is golden on these things, pointed out that there was a rebalancing of some sort. This is what I am mad at myself for - that I missed something that as a professional trader I should have known but didn't. Had I known of the rebalancing, I would never have been in that specific hedge (one could argue I should not be in that hedge at all, but that is probably a wrong argument.) So if what jim_c says applies to the NQ, it seems I was probably not the only one so poorly informed and that is why I started this thread in the hope that maybe someone could have pointed something out to me that we all missed. It was a good lesson for me and provided good motivation for being more vigilant in the future about knowing every public domain event during the day that can hurt me or be of use to me. nitro
Ok I took a moment to look at the NQ chart. What I see is a very ordinary chart. When I say ordinary, I mean that this is not unusual action for this time of year. I could offer a lot of observations, but I think the chart speaks for itself. There are many possible ways to interprete a chart that will make a trader money. This is just one. I use a variety of tools and it works for me. For those who would be inclined to point out that this gap doesn't exist or is inaccurate, I just shrug. At the next Christmas I will have been using this (Signal is my backup charting package) basic setup for 12 years. For the folks who indicated that it is "not that simple", again I am sympathetic. To me, while it may not be simple, it is pretty straightforward. Based on the season and the early action, I would have stayed away until the last hour. After that it is just another day at work. Good luck on Monday Steve
exactly. there are so many people here that know all the wiseman's sayings but not many have walked the walk.
I'm pretty sure Nitro was talking about the close on Thursday, August 11. The chart you posted is Friday, the 12th.
Sure, I understand. I took a quick look at Thursday's chart. To me it looks similar in the sense that the last hour's action included a sustained move up starting around 2pm followed by a quick reversal. While I could mark up another chart, it seems to me that either way my point is going to be the same. Trading this action is just another day at work for professionals who are properly trained. My own comments were not directed towards Nitro. He understands where he went off the track, and doesn't need my advice. I have "been there" myself, more times than I care to admit. Goodnight, Steve
Comparing this market to a train?! When was the last time you saw a locomotive going 60 mph, reverse and speed just as fast in the other direction? Even though I don't trade any of these BS futures, to my knowledge, they don't exactly slow down to a crawl, stop, make that *thump* sound when the cars pull/push each other and then slowly take off. Oh, I see, *volume* told you. This ''market'' is no longer what a stock market used to be/should be. It's more like some gambling hall with thousands of addicts pulling on levers. So what if you were able to figure when the train was about to turn. Sooner or later the train will flatten most gamblers just as is does to the coins left on the track.