No it can not, because every single casino has a max limit on the table, so you can not double indefinitely. My point is that no MM, discipline and risk control will help unless there is an edge. And almost no one will ever reveal a working one.
Well spoke. This is a very enjoyable thread. I have never seen so many members of ET be in accordance on a given topic, in terms of both what is said .. [and what isn't. Best Regards, and Good Trading All JJ
Nope, because there is a thingy called 0 and 00 on the table.... Beside the already mentioned table limit....
I just discussed an edge about one particular market seasonal pattern. There are many more that have been true for every year since the early 1990's. It's not my design and therefore someone has obviously revealed it or else I and many others would not know about it. So far, after all these years...it has not lost its edge and its been discussed every year in detailed here at EliteTrader.com since I've been a member although the discussions were mainly ignored as unimportant. Someone in this thread did mentioned that even if you do reveal your edge, most aren't going to listen and I think that's because they are too involved in doing their own thing. My point, is that some do reveal an edge while most do not reveal their edge. Yet, I do remember a very good post here at ET where someone was questioned by several other ET members about his edge (he did show his verified trading records at ET)... He said its not that he doesn't want to reveral his edge...its that he doesn't have the time and energy to do so nor the time to ensure you would use it correctly after he revealed it to you. Simply, I think there are some that will not reveal their edge and there are some that want to reveal their edge but they just don't have the time and energy to reveal their edge. With that said, do they have time to spend with you in explaining the edge and going over all the specific details about it (educating you)... That's a different story and really what this whole thread is about. Mark
I have talking with clients and groups about general market ideas, ideas and method and it can often lead to people being dependent on you, and how you would handle the market today versus yesterday and having to explain concepts that you think are simple, down to the smallest detail. It also brings pressure of people complaining on bad days, but barely anyone calls on good days.
From a perfect self interest or selfish perspective there is zero return on investment in time to give free advise to someone and all the risk of alienation and condemnation if somone botches the advise or it fails to the loss of those that listened. Unless one is trying to actively develop a reputation in the advancement of a system for profit there is nothing to be gained and everything to be lost - including time which can be synonymous with opportunity and gain. On the other hand there IS a reward to be gained if in sharing a concept/system with other objective persons they can help vet out the system and give insight in how and when it fails or find other mechanical and pragmatic trading flaws/challenges. So in sharing there is an opportunity to both advance and improve the concept/system or to understand its limitations and abandon it if its discovered character and performance is seriously impaired. Just ideas, TS
i did say it was "all that was needed"..i said that is a key ingedient in all prifitable strategies. And roulette, the odds are always against you...always. there is red, black, and green...the green assures you that the odds are always less than 50/50. the market is not the same in thsi respect. one can identify when the market has better odds. I sort of agree on the last point, except for the order of things. I would say "solid money management is the base, and then you solidify iy with your technical/fundamantal strategy" not the other way around. But you are right, if money management is the only thing you have and nothing wlse..you will slowly bleed to death...ii agree.
But what if money management was very simple and integrated loss avoidance and investment gain in one motion? Say for example somone just bought FDIC insured CD's at 5.1% or put 100% of cash into MoneyMarket at current rates approaching 5%? This is only a slow bleeding death when compared to inflation. But that is under control right? From what I am hearing from a lot of the bears around here they all would have made money in anything but negative sentiment in the last 3 months if they simply put their money in high yielding securities and took a 3 month vacation (ouch!). Thank God there is not negative value added tax . TS
Trading the Moon - an edge that a times is a no-brainer. Monday was such a set up and today it continues. I shared my approach and it's so simple to test and apply. from Trading the Moon thread... Bit of a no brainer really if you followed the method from the start of this thread. With a decent pullback the market was oversold and at trendline support the market was due to make or break. For those who include an awareness of how the lunar cycle affects the market it was obvious to expect a good move to the upside. I love it when the market pulls back before the full moon - it's like drawing the string on a bow.