By my numbers I have a monthly A down, and the up move failed right within the normal distribution of small moves. So I'm hoping that this down move will end up being the big move for the day/week. I figure my odds are about 50/50 but the reward is better than that.
I considered closing because on daily levels this will normally bounce soon. I am holding looking for a big weekly move distribution. A compromise could be to close with a reentry order x pips higher just to "scalp" some extra profit based on daily noise stats. Will have to think about this more...
Covered because it came within 3 pips of my target while I was asleep and found strength again before it got that far the 2nd time. Price has already reached a normal big week distribution so I don't feel I have an edge at this point. I netted nearly 3x risk without needing any unusual behaviour from the market to do so, so I feel this was a great trade all around. I'm waiting for next week to trade again because I don't think it is possible to get that good of R:R on daily levels unless you have time to trade intraday. I can check stuff at work on my smart phone but not nearly enough to try and trade that fast of a time frame.
I've played like 5,000,000 hands of poker so I would say I hate them all at this point. Especially the one where I lost a 6k pot to a 2 outer. I don't remember my hole cards but that is definitely my least favorite hand of all time.
I ended up making two trades this week. The 2nd one I posted in the ACD thread, and didn't feel like posting it twice lol. Here are the trades. The top red line is the open price for the week, the black lines are areas containing most of the distribution of small moves, and the red lines contain the big move distribution. You can't see the bottom one so this week really didn't have a very big move. The blue lines are the pivot range. I know the chart is cluttered with all those lines. For that reason I don't use it to trade, I just look at it to get a quick reference of where price is in relation to the distribution of moves for the week without having to constantly add and subtract x pips from the open. I am very pleased with my entries. My short at the top risked only 60ish pips and had fantastic R:R. In retrospect I may have covered too soon, not because I missed out on profit but because price hadn't even entered the bulk of the big move distribution yet. I like my buy and I think I was wise to get out when I did. Overall I am very pleased with my trades. I am also really starting to appreciate just how important it is to enter positions near the beginning of a trading cycle. (IE day, week, month). The impact it has on r:r is enormous. From that perspective I am not so sure about the 2nd trade. In a way that is nice because for a guy like me it means you really should only be opening positions on Monday or maybe Tuesday. That means I don't have to pay tons of attention to the market and can narrow my focus down to only a couple days a week. That is great for someone that is trying to balance trading with a very busy schedule. The 2nd trade was opened and closed on my smartphone btw.