Considering the Japan tsunami... "(Journal of Commerce Online â Joseph Bonney) Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.3% last month Overall retail sales fell in May for the first time in 11 months but the decline was less than expected and due largely to a sharp drop in auto sales, government data show. Total retail sales slipped 0.2% after a rise of 0.3% in April, the Commerce Department said. Economists' consensus estimates had called for a 0.4% decline in May. Retail sales account for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and a large portion of containerized imports and domestic intermodal traffic. Commerce Department data show that retail sales last month were hurt by a 2.9% drop in sales of motor vehicles as a shortage of parts following the earthquake in Japan left inventories lean and prompted manufacturers to raise prices. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.3% last month after rising 0.5% in April. A separate National Retail Federation measure excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, showed store sales growing a seasonally adjusted 0.1% from April to May and 5% compared to May 2010. Last week's "Beige Book" report by the Federal Reserve indicated the natural disasters in Japan affected U.S. sales by "substantially" reducing the flow of new cars to dealers in some regions. The report suggested spending in most Fed districts was steady or modestly higher despite higher gasoline and food prices. The Commerce Department's retail sales statistics are adjusted for seasonal variations but not for inflation. Excluding gasoline, the government figures show retail sales fell 0.3% after rising 0.1% in April. Sales at food and beverage stores fell 0.5%, while receipts at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores dropped 0.4%. Sales of electronics and appliances fell 1.3%, the largest decline since March 2010. Sales by clothing stores rose 0.2% from April, while sales at building materials and garden equipment suppliers rose 1.2%."
CPI looks pretty good. Even in a "soft patch", the economy is clearly recovering. "Highlights Consumer price inflation softened in May on a decline in energy costs. The consumer price index in May grew at a 0.2 percent rate, down from 0.4 percent in April. The latest figure, however, came in higher than the consensus forecast for no change. Excluding food and energy, the CPI jumped 0.3 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise the month before. Analysts had forecast a 0.2 percent increase. Turning to major components, energy came down 1.0 percent, following a string of strong gains including 2.2 percent in April. Gasoline declined 2.0 percent after jumping 3.3 percent in April. Food prices rose 0.4 percent, matching the boost in April. Within the core, indexes for apparel, shelter, new vehicles, and recreation all contributed to the acceleration, rising more in May than in April. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for airline fare, tobacco, and personal care. New & used vehicles rose a strong 1.0 percent but this may be a temporary effect of supply disruptions of parts from Japan and less availability of some auto models. Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation worsened to 3.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) from 3.1 percent in April. The core rate bumped up to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent in April on a year-ago basis. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 3.6 percent in May while the core was up 1.5 percent. Today's inflation report lowers the odds of the Fed engaging in QE3 as there clearly are some warm spots within the CPI. With energy softening a bit, food price inflation is standing out more."
Forget government stats, look at the Dry ships daily reports, the world economy is circling the drain... Socialism is melting down worldwide, hardly a surprise since it never works anywhere once the subsidies run out, ie: borrowing until a newborn is saddled with a half a million $ in debt... Just look at the Soviet Union and what happened when they finally gave it up and that might be some indication of how it will play out... not to mention that sunspot activity is looking suspiciously like it will not play along this cycle. The world economy tracks the sunspot cycle quite closely, probably because the ionization of the atmosphere by solar activity improves mood globally... anybody saying that "prosperity is just around the corner" is a joke really. The bailouts are just burdening us with more taxes and that is killing the incentive to invest even moreso...