If there's one thing I've learned from doing this for so many years...and blowing up more than once...it's that you need to have a set of rules for stepping away. And coming back. Whether that's Delta based or a front month VIX number, there has to be a time where you declare the market unfriendly to what you're doing, take a (hopefully small) loss and step back from the monitor. You may be out for months at a time, and that has to be ok.
A cursory glance in excel will show you that there have been numerous times over the last 10 years (is that how long she's been around) when S&P moved -100 + 10% * SPX over 8 weeks. In fact, even though she only does trade about 12 times a year, she would have gotten totally canned at least two-three times and no matter how many OTM calls she's sold she would be in deep pain, for example in expirations of Aug/Sep of 2008. My guess is that she must be a great spinner and knows how to retain capital under management. I am positive she got seriously hurt in 2008, 2010 and definitely in 2011 (given how rapid and nasty the selloff was), maybe also in 2007 and 2005 on , but was able to hold on to her capital and make her way back.
$100k to $105MM in <6Y? Not organically. Not possible. I know a guy who did that in exotics in 10 years with no capital adds. It's simply not possible with a haircut, outside of some one-off event in futures. Not selling vola in naked shorts, no way.
in the earlier video it stated about $40 mil in profit and she said that was with about $80-$90 mil so that is in line with the 50% she said for 2011 and 30% + for ytd (oct stating total profit $105 mil from beginning). it still looks like 2x-3x what you could earn selling unbalanced strangles (more puts than calls sold) but it wasn't organic from $100k to $100mil the max percentage i heard in the videos was 30-50% per year which is still high but not 1000x her initial stake. even with portfolio margin it seems hard to get to 50% per year selling strangles.
Where did the $105MM in profit come from? Oh yeah, from this 7 post clown. Speechless that TOS would allow this person to so blatantly commingle funds in a TOS account.
+1. VIX hits 25, get out, come back when VIX puts in a top, use that as your next stop. Of course, VIX whipsaw then becomes the issue. This seems relatively easy to backtest over a weekend. ktm, you mind sharing a war story?
i am just re-stating what she said in the video. you think she went organic from $100k to $100mil she never said that, the host never said that.
I haven't watched the video. The title of this thread is "105MM PROFIT". She's illegally commingling funds and talking about it publicly, regardless of the gains to date.
While I have no way of being certain, the entire presentation seems fraudulent and agenda driven. I have lost respect for Sosnoff for rolling out a grandma to pitch to the unsophisticated whether or not not claims are accurate. If its phony, I will close my TOS account. surf
Vix 25 is actually where I exit these days. I don't come back until it spends 3-4 days in the 20-22 range. The whole "putting in a top" thing is for people smarter than me!!! I ran a fund for some years and did quite well. Then it all fell apart.