Retail or "sophisticated" institutional, statistics clearly show that most traders lose money on buying call options, Theta is built in against you. Trying to beat Theta is a low probability game. Fortunately I have made money now and then by doing the opposite. Having Theta probabilities on my side via short put verticals, better odds overall. But in general now I much prefer the simplicity of just using outright futures in both directions. 14 years and yet I am still quite alive in that chosen realm, where I don't have to continually strategize around the complexities of Theta.
In general, statistically, you are correct. Any retail trader regularly buying or selling directionally without understanding the fundamentals or technicals will be a sure loser. Even though writers have a slight edge, that edge is usually more than eaten up by commissions and slippages. Been there done that: I couldn't make a profit either mechanically buying, or writing. However, like blackjack, there are situations a small probability exist, a retail buyer can have an edge. Not often but it is there.
@poopy can. I am well aware of the demise of that hedge fund. He even wrote a book. I started back in 2013 like every amateur retail, wrote tons of covered then naked and the results weren't pretty. Decided to bet against myself and bought instead, like buying lottery tickets. Slept better.
Ditto. It has always been my view that to make any real money for most retail screen jockies like us, we have to make unhedged bets on direction... and be correct "enough". We need to make 2x, 5x, or more on some of the trades and not just net pocket change on various hedged plays. I don't see how that can be done without Price TA.... our long plays need to be near support and our short trades need to be near resistance. My .02
It's a structure. Where are you paying 0.25? I can recommend. So you're stating you're make or break on $2 round-trip?
What the actual F are theta probabilities? Thanks. It's in bold so I ask. Why short put verticals over say long call verticals?
Schwab. Not make or break on $2 but that contributed to losing. Biggest drag was slippages on bid/ask. When I found a setup I like, my counter party usually won't play unless I gave up some bid/ask. And I paid dearly whenever I wanted to exit prior to expiry. I trade names, often thinly traded.