resumption of the bull market?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gharghur2, Oct 31, 2005.

  1. The recent downtrend in the SOX index appears to be over.
    See chart:

    Will it catch up? Depends on what you mean. I see it reaching the upper limit of the 1 1/2 year channel at 500+. If it can get through there, it could then approach the 560 high.

    All the NAZ needs to keep rolling is for the SOX to stay quiet :)
     
    #31     Nov 3, 2005
  2. cnms2

    cnms2

    #32     Nov 3, 2005
  3. cnms2

    cnms2

    Technically speaking crude oil is due for some rebound.
     
    #33     Nov 3, 2005
  4. cnms2

    cnms2

    This is the crude oil weekly chart. Averages turned bearish, but MACD histogram is indecisive.
     
    #34     Nov 3, 2005
  5. #35     Nov 4, 2005
  6. Technically speaking crude oil is due for some rebound. [/QUOTE]

    How about a break above my downtrend to set up a bearish flag?
    See your chart below:
     
    #36     Nov 4, 2005
  7. cnms2

    cnms2

    On this chart I see three bullish elements that might forecast the interruption of the September - October down trend:
    • the MACD histogram triple bullish divergence
    • the MACD bullish crossover
    • the 4 bar MA crossing up the 9 bar MA, as well as their change in slope
    I don't see (yet) a bearish flag.

    I don't trade or follow closely crude oil futures; I follow them just as a part of the overall picture, so I didn't look at other technicals. Obviously technical analysis is not infallible, it is just a way of trying to bend the odds a little, but this chart signals are tradeable. The rest is money management: position sizing and exits.

    Easily ... not?
    :)
     
    #37     Nov 4, 2005
  8. On this chart I see three bullish elements that might forecast the interruption of the September - October down trend:
    • the MACD histogram triple bullish divergence
    • the MACD bullish crossover
    • the 4 bar MA crossing up the 9 bar MA, as well as their change in slope
    I don't see (yet) a bearish flag. :)
    [/QUOTE]

    chris...

    I see the histogram tri-divergence, the crossover and the slope. Maybe it will bounce here and create a bearish flag, just above the trendline? Lots of that going on these days...
     
    #38     Nov 4, 2005
  9. cnms2

    cnms2

    I liked this quote:
     
    #39     Nov 4, 2005
  10. Good Morning America,

    I finally figured out how to create charts from my futures account. We're armed and dangerous now :)

    I've been watching ES and NQ unfold, so it was easy to slap the labels on the advance. Mind you I'm not a futures guy, only an EW guy reading the charts. Here's my take on ES:

    At first it looks kind of sloppy, but it is very clear if you know where the advance began. The Oct 13th low was not the orthodox low for ES/SPX or YM/DOW, it was only the price low. Remember the triple retest? Oct 20th was the orthodox low for the ES/SPX, and Oct 21st was the low for YM/DOW. The 13th was only the low for the NQ/NAZ.

    ***

    Counting up from the orthodox low of 1174 in ES we have a clear five wave structure ending at about 1205, labeled wave 1. Followed by a steep correction to about 1180, labeled wave 2.

    The first advance of wave 3 is labeled (wave i) which tops at about 1212.50 (wave 3 is subdividing). A correction (wave ii) to 1205. Then a subdivided (wave iii) not yet complete (labeled 1-2-3-4). Notice wave 3 is only about 10 points: check you numbers to make sure. Thus, wave 5 CAN NOT be longer, because wave 3 is shorter than wave 1. So if wave 4 ended at 1220, then wave 5 needs to end before 1230. This would complete (wave iii). Then a correctional (wave iv) followed by another advance (wave v) to end 3. Sounds complicated, but it's clear and simple. Just ask!
    Chart below:

    Good trading ... just reading waves remember :)
     
    #40     Nov 4, 2005