It depends what you mean by lower. From $59.50(now) to something like $59.20, or something more... substantial?
Something always looks good. I can never tell what is going to be a big winner and what is going to be a loser. I just keep placing rational bets and sometimes I make money. What industry groups are leading this bull market?
I liked todays action...definitely a third wave thrust 9:30 - 10:00 AM...sideways...then a push to new highs right into the 1212 EW pivot. To be conservative...for me it's hard ... I'd say we got overbought today early on in the 15 minute chart ... we should get oversold either tuesday/wednesday ... buy the dip and watch what develops. If it's good, it'll go through 1212 like a knife through melted butter. If not, well we might have more base bulding to do. The NAZ recovered nicely after the SOX closed that downside gap. I think that was a washout. And, today the FED...anything but a 1/4% hike would be a surprise, that's totally discounted. All the techincals are aligned for a big move up, I'd be really surprised if it failed....tony
My murky crystal ball tells me the anti-oil, anti-inflation plays. Transports, travel, utilities, financials (banks, brokerages, insurance, etc.).
We can now count a 5-3-5 from the lows in all three indices: NAZ, SPX and DOW. During corrections, this would just be labeled another ABC counter rally. And, we have been in a correction. However, I do not believe this rally is corrective. There are too many technicals indicating that it is impulsive. And, thus the kick-off to our much awaited wave 3 (iii) rally. I've posted five new charts: 10-day 15min SPX, NAZ and DOW; 1-year daily SPX and NAZ. Check it out! Let me know your opinions...below is one of the charts. http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
After opening lower to complete a wave ii flat, the market took off again to the upside, in an across the board advance, as volume exceeded 2 billion shares: a nice day's work. Today's rally can be labeled wave (iii) in all three indices, or part of it, too early to tell. The SOX index however, has generated a very short term sell signal, after rising over 7.5% in just four days. Remember the washout low we mentioned on friday? I'd expect some pressure by the SOX on the NAZ, and thus the general market, probably early on tomorrow... http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
For you early birds, I just posted this: Thursday morning alert There is something disturbing, short term, that I just noticed, and wanted to bring it to your attention. For those of you not trading, it is of little concern. However, for those of you who do trade you might want to take note of this. It could be important. I have posted two charts. One labeled SPXsubdividing, which is the count I have been using. And the other labeled SPX5waves, another potential count. At times the waves are not clear! I'll save you a trip to the link by posting a potential short term count below: http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
If you keep saying it long enough it may happen, I recall you posting something about a month ago along these lines, some sort of analisys trying to count waves or something.