SHORT TERM: NEUTRAL to POSITIVE Since the early January high the NDX declined in five waves into the mid January low at precisely EW pivot 1671. It then rallied for a week or so reaching just above the EW pivot of 1717. This can be labeled an A wave down and a B wave rally in an overall ABC correction. Over the past few days the market has turned lower in what I would label wave 1 of another five wave decline. The selling on friday ended exactly at the EW pivot 1658, then the market rallied seven points to close at 1665. It appears we have completed this wave 1, and should now experience a counter rally wave 2 for a few days up to the EW pivot of 1690. This is the level from where we recently broke down, and the reason I am posting a neutral to positive short term status. All this labeling that I have described can been seen on the NDX 60min and NDX daily charts on the chart link. I am mentioning the NDX specifically because it seems to be dictating the course of action for this market. I will be following all the other indices as usual, but will be placing special emphasis on the NDX, until this changes. I will be posting the specific EW pivots for the other indices directly on the daily charts, so you can observe the market unfold in relation to the EW pivots as the correction continues. They work remarkably well, as you have noticed from what has transpired in the NDX for the past few weeks, and the markets overall for the past few months since I started posted them. Best to your week! http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
Thanks! We're due for a bounce, but I think it's only a bounce. Expecting NDX 1634 to be retested down the road a bit.
That bounce looked to be taken out in the first hour. Looking for NDX 1634 to establish an important low: http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
Everything was for sale today: gold, crude oil , bonds, stocks, especially the SPX. The market did its usual routine of late, going down while being led by the NDX. But about midday the SPX took over the leadership on the downside, making new lows every hour. We must be close to a bottom! At this point we have to look at two potential scenarios tomorrow. First: todays highs (NDX 1664 and SPX 1266) are exceeded tomorrow, the bottom is in, and the market moves substantially higher from there. Second: the market continues to decline to the EW pivots NDX 1634 and SPX 1249, ending the decline, and the market proceeds to move substantially higher from those lows. It looks like we're close to at least a short term low.
Technically, stocks have rallied nicely now for four consecutive days, with my MMI up sharply, good news. I'm beginning to see the NDX/NAZ impulsing waves, where early in the rally it was a bit sloppy. The SPX has been solidly impulsing waves from the lows last friday. Short term, the SPX: is a little overbought, displays potentially 5 waves up from the lows, and there is some negative divergences in the RSI. It developed a good 5th wave, so support remains around SPX 1271. It closed just above EW pivot 1288 with next resistance 1295. The NDX also displays potentially 5 waves up from the lows, and is channeling nicely. Thus far, its 5th wave is short, so that would indicate support at NDX 1658. The NDX closed just below the EW pivot 1690 at 1689, next resistance 1717. We closed on a positive note and had a post market follow through in the futures: expecting an upside opening tomorrow. If SPX 1282 is reached, the market is probably correcting this recent rally. http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
It looks to be that time again... I'm seeing a myriad of bullish technical signals just about everywhere I look: advisor sentiment now at typical lows, strong net commercial buying, recent oversold levels that have indicated intermediate term bottoms, completed corrective patterns and five waves up in the NDX/NAZ/SPX/DOW from the recent lows ... corrected and now impulsing upward again. Also, new highs in the DOW, and all time highs in the TRANsports. The cyclicals are leading, strange enough, but the NAZ/NDX is in catch up mode. A little different this time around, but same net result. tony
Investors Intelligence posted last night the lower bullish sentiment since March 2003! Bulls minus bears 11.8 %