The point is there's nothing to lose if he gets acquitted in the Senate of federal charges since no president elect would pursue them once he's out of office, and the State charges would remain regardless.
Horrible strategy. You lose all the democrats that are pushing to uphold the rule of law now who'll see it as pure politics. You lose all independents and right wing moderates who'll see it as pure vindictiveness.
My understanding is that Pelosi thinks there might be political capital to lose among undecided voters if the attempt to impeach is unsuccessful (because of the senate) and then viewed as a partisan maneuver by those undecided voters. So while Trump will get what's coming to him when he's out of office (anyway), the Democrats might step on their own dicks politically in the meantime (i.e., the next election) if it's misinterpreted by a sufficient number of voters. That's how I read Pelosi's calculus of the situation. I could be wrong.
You read it just fine, she's just flat out wrong is all. You only need to take a look at the voters that flipped over the Clinton proceedings who were fed up with the drama, even when his popularity remained high.
Guess I should have clarified. My response was purely a legalistic/mathematical one. It didn't take into account the politics, the biases, the dumbness, etc. While certainly, the real world physics are more complicated than theories in a vacuum; I offer no such real world analysis. I don't have the data. I don't have the models. In sum, and to put in a way rarely done in this forum of experts: I currently don't know what the best approach is--and don't mean to suggest that I do.