Repetition, The Mother of Success and Failure. RAMOUTAR REPORT VOLUME 10

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by RAMOUTAR, Jan 14, 2004.

  1. Thanks for your words, Ramoutar.

    Okay, you are clearly a much more experienced trader than me and therefore you can refer to a much larger "internal database" of trading experiences, market events and chart patterns and behaviours.

    I suppose one day, I will be just as able as you to interpret market action the way you can without any requirement for backtesting or other objective verification.

    I am humbled by the wisdom of somebody who's been doing this for 14 years, starting long before "day trading" was even a known term, and has survived all the way through the bubble. Clearly, I do not have such a breadth of experience to refer to, which would be one of my reasons to "focus" on one issue only. Myself, I only started trading after the burst of the big 90's bubble, learnt in a bear market and trying to survive in harsh conditions by testing every single thing I did, before applying it.

    I only hope that I'll manage to maintain as much care, discipline and humility as you give to the market, to live in this game as long as you already did.

    May prosperity be with you, and thanks for your many great words, essays and other inspirations you have shared on this forum. I greatly appreciate them and think they are amongst the very best and particularly most interesting ever shared in public.

    Warmest Regards,
    Scientist.
     
    #41     Jan 25, 2004
  2. Man harry, you just get better and better. Here a couple of my favorites regarding The Man:

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0399526900

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0809230410

    And of course my all-time favorite coach (forget the "trading" coaches):

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0684870185

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0941372057
     
    #42     Jan 25, 2004
  3. ROFLMAO
     
    #43     Jan 25, 2004
  4. JR, backtesting in and of itself is not reliable; however, combined with walk-forward (backward) testing one can achieve some statistical confidence. For example, I'll take a testing period of six months and then apply a system. Then, apply this system to a random selection of six-month periods over the past ten years. Collect the results for each of these periods. For each period, I compile a set of metrics that generally describes the market's behavior for that period, e.g., its historical volatility ratio, its trend, strength of trend (ADX), etc. After analyzing each period, I revise the system and then repeat the same procedure, using different randomly sampled periods. After several iterations, sometimes the system begins to converge on a "solution", most often it does not.

    Traders have different perceptions of what constitutes a system. In some cases, traders believe they can describe a simple pattern, program it, and then just pull up the performance report to assess whether or not the pattern can be traded. To me, this type of system is dangerous because it is closest to the random extreme of the market behavior spectrum. I tend to rely on system frameworks, those types of systems that are "all in" and which require months or even years of development. Examples of these frameworks are Drummond Geometry, Trend Dynamics, etc. Here on ET, harrytrader posts chart examples of his framework. I understand his need to be protective - he has probably put years of effort into his work, and intellectual property is everything in this business.

    My partner and I spent several years developing an intraday framework. Is it a collection of patterns? Not really, it is a collection of interaction of patterns (or systems), and this framework uses a combination of market metrics that are important for understanding the intraday dynamics (for example, how does the degree of congestion on one trading day influence market behavior the following day?). There is one book out there that talks about a "pattern cycle" (I would argue that cycle is a misnomer), but even that material is not even on the cusp of a true understanding of markets.

    Regarding your final point JR, I would disagree somewhat with your conclusion that the "cornerstone of technical analysis" is "capitalizing on repeating patterns." I would only add the phrase "in the right context", implying an underlying holistic framework.

    Regards,

    PTR
     
    #44     Jan 25, 2004
  5. ...on a a CD I'm sellling. You're an awesome mentor. Will you be doing a similar CD for Esignal? Bid with confidence on your CD. :)
     
    #45     Jan 25, 2004
  6. RAMOUTAR

    RAMOUTAR


    Im bidding :p Do you have anymore to sell?
     
    #46     Jan 25, 2004
  7. RAMOUTAR

    RAMOUTAR

    Sorry PTR, I didn't see your post earlier. As I stated in a previous post, backtesting hasn't worked well for me. Perhaps it's just because I didn't spend enough time backtesting, or just haven't had the interest. I'm glad that you have found something that has worked for you. In the last year I have reviewed 4 black boxes (all from different programmers). When backtested, the programmers forecasts were based on backtesting results, only to find that the forward results were severely discounted by way of unforeseen dynamics. In my mind, nothing will ever replace human judgement.

    The net results of the scanning & research methods I use are not too much different than the results many of my closer colleagues achieve with backtested methods and strategies. Practicing a steadfast method of scanning and plotting entries and exits hasn’t failed me, then again I’m sure backtesting would reveal additional foresight (or hindsight) that may improve my results.

    I must admit, while I wasn’t impressed with the results of the blackboxes put before me, I was quite impressed with the way the systems were backtested. eSignal has an "open box" technology and that makes backtesting more attractive to me. I’ll look into it one day. Thanks PTR.
     
    #47     Jan 27, 2004
  8. Do you know that you sting ? Can you do shorter also instead of a "long winded banter reminiscent of Harrytrader" hahaha ! Your ego is as big as Scientist or me of course the difference is that you faint to be humble. It's funny that each time these kind of people has nothing more to do than personal attacks even when they have never been attacked before... now it's ok you will be on my list of ennemies if you want.

     
    #48     Jan 28, 2004
  9. Well, that's exactly the hipocrisy here isn't it? His last reply was so hypocritical, contradictive and not to mention full of false allegations that I just didn't even bother going in on it anymore. Just listen to his "long winded banter" on his experience in the hedge fund industry! How very impressive. Particularly his supposed attitude on "humility". This guy should cut himself a slice from RAMOUTAR. JR never attacks anybody. He always keeps a low profile and a sincere attitude of humility and diplomacy.

    ChartingMarkets's humility only goes skin-deep. Underneath lives an angry fellow, probably someone who's had his teeth kicked in by the markets way too many times to remain happy.

    Myself, I remain as humble as possible, yet always ready to blowfish if people try the 'agro' on me. It always seems to work, too. Just look at how ChartingMarkets embarrassed himself with his "I posted a statement" and claim that HTML isn't easy to be faked! LMAO! :D

    Not to mention all the other guys on ET who embarrassed themselves trying to make a point about me. Almost every single one of them has been slapped by me one or the other way. Just look at the "scientist" threads by GG & Co., where ChartingMarket's many friends happily participated, yet all failed to bring evidence for even a single one of their claims of what I supposedly said, when I challenged them. Clearly, if even the "search" feature fails on their allegations, they've really embarrassed themselves. What a great laugh on my side though - every time again.

    Now, here is an enlightening message for you flamers and holy wannabe's; There's always going to be a 2% in the market that fundamentally disagrees with 98% of the others. If you spend all your time fighting them - goodonya. That's what you'll be doing in the markets, too, in order to privide liquidity for contrarian non-mainstream people like harrytrader, RAMOUTAR, or me. But if you're interested in "progress", then stop fighting, be patient and look for the amazing insights that can at times be found reading the "banter" of people like harrytrader. And I am very sincere about this. Thank you for your consideration.

    Veni, Vidi, Vici.
     
    #49     Jan 29, 2004
  10. Scientist it's now 10 days (1/18/2004) scince we posted back and forth on ET to each other. However, on 1/25/2004 you decided to post and flame me (which I respectfully for ET's sake decided to ignore) and now here on 1/29/2004 you try again. Why are you so fixated on publicly trying to make me out to be a liar? You claim to be above these antics and yet you continue to post these antagonistic remarks nonetheless.

    If there is anything you doubt about my background, trading credentials or anything at all then I'm sure that my good friend Jai Ramoutar can vouch for who I am. (Both experience and account statements). Mr. Ramoutar and I have been friends for almost 10 years now and I will vouch for him and his trading credentials as I have witnessed it firsthand, furthermore, because you have made it obvious that you respect Mr. Ramoutar as well I will assume that an affirmation coming from him will be sufficient for you. If not than there is nothing really more that anybody can do to satisfy you.

    Scientist I think its self explanatory here on ET who is the trouble maker and who is the one with the professional trading experience. If you have any doubts at all about me I am sure Mr. Ramoutar will put it to rest when he reads this post.

    P.S. I will let the history of my posts on ET speak for themselves and anybody on this message board who has read them and moreover PMed me over my time here knows the real situation. As always good "luck" in your trading.
     
    #50     Jan 29, 2004