Repair Strategy for NFLX Short Put

Discussion in 'Options' started by learningoptiontrading, Jul 16, 2018.

  1. lindq

    lindq

    The OP likely fell victim to one of the many "option income" promoters who like to headline their websites with the claim that "96% OF OUR TRADES ARE SUCCESSFUL!"

    Yes, that is often true. But the OP just experienced what the other 4% is all about. He should count his blessings if he survives it.
     
    #31     Jul 17, 2018
  2. SteveH

    SteveH

    If an ATM put 6 mos out put isn't giving you at least a 13% premium for taking the risk, pass. If it is, then sell it cash covered AFTER it's had a decent pullback. The whole idea is to create a win-win situation with a non-leveraged play: you'll be either happy geting paid to wait or happy getting a good, longer term position. I would be willing to go 3 rounds of selling ATM staggered puts like that, thinking of the whole as an entire position. Your 13%-15% premiums collected on each event have a high probability of giving you an overall favorable cost avg relative to the real-time pricing.

    Remember this post, because when the VIX goes to 60-80 next time, the SPY and a lot of great companies priced under $20 will give you such opportunities.

    I couldn't agree more with Robert. The way out of a bad situation is to take a loss and move on.

    The OP set himself up to play a 50/50 game without a clear way of making at least 1.5x his risk . Don't do that. My gawd, there's 50/50 setups on volatile futures contracts giving that up in buckets. If you have a day job, living in North America, then trade the HHI futures off of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange. You can spend 2.5 hours from Sunday thru Thurs night trading a beautiful trender which will prep you for trading it's greater ranging brother, the HSI. Highly profitable stuff.

    In the meantime..."...as ye burn, so shall ye learn."
     
    #32     Jul 17, 2018
    rtw likes this.
  3. rb7

    rb7

    @learningoptiontrading, if you had a plan at first place, you wouldn't ask yourself what to do now.
    The truth is, you fuc...ed up. That's it. It may be your first time, but it won't be your last (if you keep going!).

    You need to admit to that you were wrong and take your loss and move on. Anything else will be gambling.

    Accept your error and try to learn from it.
     
    #33     Jul 17, 2018
    • NFLX up $10.00+ from market open.
    • NFLX could easily be very close to $400 by week end.
     
    #34     Jul 17, 2018
  4. Robert Morse

    Robert Morse Sponsor

    I think you are giving him false hope. That type of reverse is very rare.
     
    #35     Jul 17, 2018
    rb7 likes this.
  5. IMO ..... He is in a big dilemma.

    If he closes now and NFLX does reverse back to $400 the psychological hit will be worse than riding it down for further losses.

    NFLX up $17
     
    #36     Jul 17, 2018
    _eug_ likes this.
  6. rb7

    rb7

    If he doesn't and NFLX goes down to $300....
     
    #37     Jul 17, 2018

  7. Answer is in the post you quoted.
     
    #38     Jul 17, 2018
  8. rb7

    rb7

    Anyway, I don't think the OP will close his position and take his loss. He might get away this time, but one day, a small loss will become a bigger one.

    Admitting an error is tough. Even tougher when trading and money is involved.
     
    #39     Jul 17, 2018

  9. If the trade is still open he has recouped $2000 in losses from the market open.
     
    #40     Jul 17, 2018