/GC has had a nice move up. Bitcoin a nice move down.Big selloff coming at 1300 for /GC?? Or will it find some real legs above 1300? Would Bitcoin go even lower if /GC does catch a bid above 1300? Opinions on correlation?
I think people here don’t understand the concept of volatility (which is needed before you delve into the the correlation mess). Bitcoin is realizing about 10-11% per day this year (160-180% per year). It’s down 30% from its peak over the course of two weeks, which is actually less than a single standard deviation. So no, it’s not a “nice move”. It’s equivalent of S&P having a down 50basis point day - would that raise your eyebrows? As for correlation of anything crypto with gold - I’d venture it is zero and anything you find is spurious.
I understand that Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold. If you owned 1 Bitcoin and it was worth 20,000 dollars. Now it’s worth less than 14,000. Not an insignificant down move.
Two standard deviations is where “significant” starts in my mind. This way you normalize the idea of “big” between different assets.
Fair point. I tend to agree. A little to much wiggle room in the words “big” or “ significant”. Different for everybody. Standard deviations ( or two)are a more consistent way to measure moves in different underlyings. The big or significant part is inconsequential. Gold up. Bitcoin down. Will this continue?