Could someone please point me to a reference for how to interpret the relative position of various moving averages? I assume it is generally bullish to have a shorter-term moving average above a longer-term moving average -- is there more to it?
I had three in mind, e.g. 20-, 50-, and 200-day. Wasn't sure if 20- > 50- > 200- was considered much more promising than 20- > 50- < 200-, or if there are particular points when one is crossing another that are thought to be strongly bullish (e.g., 20- crossing 50- vs. 20- crossing 200-). My prior is that the shorter MAs are more informative, such that I tend to focus on those regardless of their position relative to the 200-day.
http://stockcharts.org/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages (Scroll down to "Uses ...") Generally you put the odds in your favor when your MA's are all lined up correctly, as long as you're not too late to the trend. Hope this helps.
What you want is the Triple MA Crossover system. It allows you to exit the market when price goes choppy. http://www.tradingblox.com/Manuals/UsersGuideHTML/triplemovingaverage.htm
Or an adaptive moving average that goes flat when the market is choppy (just kidding... kind of... I've never seen an adaptive MA that responded quick enough, including ones that I tweaked and made myself. It's a cool concept, tho)
You need a 2 or 3 sma crossing a 500 sma on a 10 min chart. That's it! Follow it exactly and it works well. Don't make it complex.
In this market and unless you are looking to hold the position for a while I suggest you consider using a 5, 20 and 50 MA. Use both the daily and hourly time frames. If you are taking intraday I suggest you use 8 and 21. May the force be with you.