Info from trimtabs.com Overnight Liquidity Update â January 27th, 2004 U.S. equity funds received an estimated $650 million average daily inflow during the past two days, compared with a $1 billion average daily inflow during the first thirteen days of the month. Did the slowdown in inflows have more to do with the two slightly down market days last Thursday and Friday--the average U.S. equity fundâs net asset value dropped 0.1% last Thursday and 0.2% last Friday--or are inflows beginning to slow naturally as we move further into 2004? In the January 26, 2004 issue of Pensions & Investments, Wilshire Associatesâ Steve Nesbitt was quoted on annualized flows into pension plans: âI would expect to see, on a normalized basis, contributions of at least the $100 billion level going forwardâ. If this prediction is accurate, and since just over half of all pension fund assets are invested in equities, it could mean a steady $1 billion weekly inflow into equities via pension funds. Of course, pension inflows will probably be concentrated at the beginnings of quarters. New buyback announcements have picked up now that we are in the third week of earnings reporting season. Ten new buybacks have been announced during the first three days of this week (our liquidity week begins on Friday and ends on Thursday). In addition, a $400 million new cash takeover for Cole National was announced. In todayâs TrimTabs Personal Income, Madeline Schnapp reports that the Bureau of Economic Analysisâ monthly personal income figure--which will be reported later this week for December--is nothing more than a guess based upon data that is at least six months old. From today's TrimTabs Personal Income: âEach month, the BEA publishes Personal Income and Outlays, a report that details income and disbursements. Thus, it may seem at first glace that our coverage duplicates existing information. Most people do not realize, however, that while the BEAâs annual and semiannual figures are compiled from actual data collected from companies via unemployment insurance reports, the monthly data consists of nothing more than educated guesses derived by interpolating and extrapolating annual data using monthly employment and population data from other government agencies. In other words, the monthly data is what we affectionately term a ÅWAG,â or wild-assed guess. These guesses are then Årevisedâ using actual quarterly unemployment insurance data that comes to the government one quarter later. Therefore, the real income picture emerges on a six-month delay. We asked our contact at the BEA why the BEA ignores the daily or less volatile monthly Treasury data. Our contact indicated that the BEAâs methodology for calculating income is rooted in a Åtraditionâ that stretches back several decades.â According to the Monthly Treasury Statement, wages and salaries in December 2003 rose 6.9% from December 2002. So far in January, wages and salaries have risen 6%. This income could generate lots of fresh cash to support the bubble. We continue to await the strengthening of the new offering calendar. Today, Tuesday, seven new offerings were sold for $1.4 billion. As we write this update, we do not yet know how many deals are being priced tonight. The speed with which the new offering calendar builds to at least an $8 billion weekly pace will largely determine when the bubble will be ready to burst. MUTUAL FUND FLOWS FOR January 26, 2004 ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: INFLOW $724.2 MILLION; NAV UP 0.9% US EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: INFLOW $781.3 MILLION BREADTH: NEGATIVE 27 OUT VERSUS 27 IN NAV: UP 0.9% INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: OUTFLOW $57.1 MILLION BREADTH: NEGATIVE 8 OUT VERSUS 6 IN NAV: UP 0.5% BONDS & HYBRID: FLOW: INFLOW $135.7 MILLION NAV: DOWN 0.1% L1: NET FLOAT $1,218 MILLION NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $401 MILLION COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MILLION NEW STOCK BUYBACKS $722 MILLION NEW OFFERINGS: $1,407 MILLION INSIDER SELLING $800 MILLION L2: US EQUITY FUND FLOW $781 MILLION Regards, Charles Biderman, President TrimTabs.com Investment Research http://www.TrimTabs.com +1 (707) 525 1001