Red Flags Or False Alarm: Where’s The Recession?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Nobert, Feb 25, 2023.

  1. lariati

    lariati

    Hi everyone, glad to find this forum. I had been on Reddit for awhile but tired of the structure.

    To me, it is just a matter of timing. I just don't see how we get out of the current situation without a recession.
    If we don't have a recession then economic activity will cause inflation and then the Fed will have to increase rates all the more to slow things down.

    This push/pull though should create really nice volatility and trading opportunity as it has been. Buy and hold had its time.

    These upcoming rate hikes I would imagine are the back breakers. 6-6.25% came on the table for July this week ever so slightly. That seems crazy but it is not obvious to me that we can tackle inflation without taking Fed funds above CPI. That is of course unless in the process we have a recession.

    I hope to post things of value and cool/unique visualizations.
     
    #11     Feb 25, 2023
    Nobert likes this.
  2. Stagflation. Real wages are falling, not employment.
     
    #12     Feb 25, 2023
    AKUMATOTENSHI likes this.
  3. It. Already. Happened.

    How hard is that to understand?

    Anybody saying otherwise is simply not worth listening to, since they believe in changing the definition of commonly accepted terms at the drop of a hat. Whatever they have to say literally has no meaning.
     
    #13     Feb 25, 2023
    AKUMATOTENSHI, Overnight and Nobert like this.
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    You have conviction, I like it. A lot. Now just shove that conviction down the throat of the FOMC, so they don't hike us into oblivion.
     
    #14     Feb 25, 2023
  5. Didn't watch video, but the title caught my eye because I was wondering the same thing. We had well over a decade of the most expansive monetary policy you can have (in addition to fiscal policy), and the monetary policy stops and reverse big time in very short order - I would have expected much worse by now. When recessions happen, don't they happen pretty quick? I mean "real" recessions, maybe technically we are in one, I have no clue. But it certainly does not feel like a recession.
     
    #15     Feb 26, 2023
  6. destriero

    destriero


    Wow, cool story, Greenspan. Did you find a 2009 WSJ outside your double wide?
     
    #16     Feb 26, 2023

  7. Whoa, simmer down there fat thing. Its not my fault your were born a manlet. Don't take your insecurities out on me LOL.
     
    #17     Feb 26, 2023
  8. destriero

    destriero

    "expansive moneyturry pollocy"
     
    #18     Feb 26, 2023
  9. Well, for you, that is "expansive 52" waistline" LOL.
     
    #19     Feb 26, 2023
  10. destriero

    destriero

    Your EBT still spends, eh?
     
    #20     Feb 26, 2023