Someone correct me if I'm wrong but csco had a market cap over 1trillion at the height of the tech bubble. The fed seems intent on creating the biggest asset bubble of all time, I mean even if the data improved alot I doubt bernanke would stop QE. At the end of the day today I felt that late 90s feel in aapl and amzn. Offers were being lifted, alot of greed was in the air. The fed wants the whole stock market to act like this so who the hell knows how high aapl will go.
During the tech bubble, didn't QCOM have a price target of 1000... I think the analyst is a nut!!!!!! 500 bucks, come on!!!!!
Yeah I remember that day when qcom got the 1000 target, so much energy in the office back then. I was referencing market cap which I don't think qcom got anywhere near the cap of csco at the height.
AAPL stock is the bargain of the century compared to BIDU, which is currently priced as if they're expected to announce a cure for cancer before year end.
I'm not quite sure, but I think CSCO also peaked around 500 or 600 billion - I don't think they ever quite got to $1 Trillion. One thing about these super caps is there is really no chance they will be bought out, which is something that has raised alot of stocks recently i.e. MFE, PAR, GYMB etc. JJacksET4
Apple had a nice run up to earning with extreme expectations now. Usually it's a good opportunity to do a short on these type of price actions before earning. But it's one of the strongest companies out there, and it always surprise to the positive side, look at the previous 4 quarter earning announcements and price before and after. They are also announcing something big again on the 20th. Just no point to take the risk when there are so many other shorts you can do. Maybe some otm put or fly as a lottery ticket for <$1000 otherwise no go
Monday, November 1, 2010 07:00 PM EST Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty described China as an "unappreciated" potential growth driver for Apple, setting a $375 "base case" target for the company's stock and a "bull case" scenario where Apple shares could reach $500 by next fall. The report summarized Morgan Stanley's "increasing confidence in our bull case" by noting that "despite steady upturn since February 2009, we continue to believe investors underappreciate the AAPL growth story, which is driven by one, iPhone market share gains and expanded distribution; two, the iPad market opportunity; three, rising enterprise adoption, and four, the Chinese consumer." Apple's "aspirational brand" in China In the report coauthored with Mathew Schneider, Huberty stated, "we see 27% incremental revenue and 44% operating income potential in 2012," based on a variety factors including "China strategist Jerry Lou's view that China is undergoing a 'megatransition' from being the leading producer of goods to the leading consumer of them." Morgan Stanley also cited "evidence of strong uptake of Apple products among higher-income China consumers from our November 2009 AlphaWise survey," along with recent success demonstrated by BMW, "which we see as a template for Apple's growth. If our numbers are right, Apple then would have to grow revenue by just 19% and operating income by 11% in the rest of the world - a marked deceleration from LTM 43%/37% ex-Asia growth - to hit the current consensus two-year EPS growth forecast of 21% (and our 22%)." The report also noted that China's "baby boomers" are increasing consumption. "Jerry Lou believes this segment, which will be over half the Chinese population in 2015, will continue to trade up to higher-priced 'aspirational brands.' We expect AAPL to be a key beneficiary of this trend." The report notes that Apple's brand is "already preferred by urban Chinese: Our Nov '09 survey of Chinese handset users in tier 1 / 2 cities suggests Apple already has greater mindshare among higher-income China consumers than in the US. This population is 3x as likely to own a Mac, 1.7x as likely to own an iPod, and 1.8x as likely to own a Smartphone." The report added that "Apple held 5% market share of handsets [in China] at the time of the survey, but 31% of surveyed consumers said theyâd consider Apple for their next handset purchase, higher than any other brand." Apple targeting China with large retail expansion Huberty also wrote that Apple was "on a trajectory similar to BMW China," describing both as 'aspirational brands," that are expanding distribution in China. "Despite the lack of financing and overall lower average income, China will account for 11% of BMW revenue and 17% of OpInc this year, according to our European auto analyst Stuart Pearson, due to a 4x increase in dealers over the past five years. Apple is making similar investments in distribution and is on track to hit similar contribution rates by FY12, in our view." Apple has significant retail expansion plans in China, with publicly announced intentions to add 21 new stores in China by the end of 2012. The company currently has four; two stores in both Beijing and Shanghai. Apple is reportedly working to open a third store in both cities as well as a new store in Hong Kong. The company said it intends to open 40 to 50 new retail stores in 2011, making its plans in China roughly 25% of the company's global retail expansion. About half of Apple's new retail stores are expected to open in the US. http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/11/01/china_offers_apple_vast_new_growth_potential.html
P/E ttm is only 20. Forward est at 12. It's not like you're comparing tech boom days... amzn to 400 with a negative to infinite P/E. From a purely fundamental perspective, I don't see the numbers as being that far out of the ballpark, or what am I missing here?
Maybe they could announce a buyback and convert all their shares to Iphones..... Only 900 million more phones to go...